Box Office Predictions: Smurfs And Steve Carell Are No Match For Cowboys & Aliens

July’s going out with a bang as we’ve got three new wide releases on the way. Are they all going to put up big numbers? Probably not, but we are looking at three somewhat solid earners. The biggest of the bunch will undoubtedly be Cowboys & Aliens. With a total 3,750 screens and a star-studded cast, but no 3D, this one should come in under Green Lantern, but above Super 8 with about $50 million. According to Friends with Benefits, the comedy genre is in a bit of a lull and it looks as though Crazy, Stupid, Love will be sucked right in. Thanks to a bigger cast and more theaters, it should top Friends with Benefits‘ $18.6 million week one intake with about $20 million. As for The Smurfs, not only will it reel in the kids, but some older, long-time Smurfs fans, too. Ultimately, The Smurfs should come in with at least $20 million, putting it on par with another recent live-action/animation release, Zookeeper.

Captain America: The First Avenger opened right on line with the May release, Thor, so should it see a Thor-sized week two drop, it’ll come in with about $34 million. As for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, it’s poised to take yet another steep drop, yet not nearly as harsh as the last. After falling a whopping 72%, Harry could level out to about 55%, which would give it another $21 million for week three.

Sure, Friends with Benefits didn’t open as strong as Horrible Bosses, but seeing as the latter saw a modest week two fall, and, well, Friends with Benefits didn’t earn that much in its first weekend out, there’s a good shot Friends with Benefits could lose just 37% of its week one profits, giving it $11 million for round two. As Transformers: Dark of the Moon’s weekly intake declines, so does its percent change. After losing 54.7% in week three and then 43.5% in week four, there’s a good chance Dark of the Moon could fall 40% in week five, leaving it with about $7 million.

As there’s quite the gap between these three films in last weekend’s standings, Horrible Bosses, Zookeeper and Cars 2 should fall right in line, rounding out the top ten. Horrible Bosses will certainly get a little knock from Crazy, Stupid, Love, but considering the film’s held on rather strong from day one, never losing more than 37.2% in a single weekend, there’s no reason to think its percent change will creep above 45%. Should that be the case, Horrible Bosses will post a $6.5 million week four haul. Zookeeper enjoyed a mere 29.4% loss last weekend, but thanks to The Smurfs, that percentage could bump up to about 40%, which would give it $5 million this time around. Cars 2 also saw an impressively low week five fall and while it should manage to maintain some control over that percent change, it still could come in with about $3 million courtesy of a 40% loss. As long as it doesn’t drop more than that, it should be able to snag that last spot from Winnie the Pooh, which will likely be nipping at its heels.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Cars 2

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)