Box Office Predictions: Apes Take Over The World And The Box Office

After a surprisingly close race last weekend, this weekend’s big winner should have more than enough breathing room. Rise of the Planet of the Apes is due out in 3,500 theaters as compared to The Change-Up‘s 2,913. Plus, we’re talking a superhero-sized production with strong reviews up against a more modest comedy with dismal ones; there really is no competition. However, Rise of the Planet of the Apes still seems comparable to something like Predators or District 9. Predators only opened in 2,669 theaters, but should Rise of the Planet of the Apes post a similar per theater average, it should wrap up its opening weekend with about $33 million. Then again, Planet of the Apes’ $68.5 million opening back in 2001 suggests there might still be some strong interest in the franchise and maybe even enough to give the film a $7 million boost, putting its week one total at $40 million. As for The Change-Up, it most certainly won’t see a Horrible Bosses or Green Lantern sized opening, but it does stand a chance at topping last weekend’s comedy release, Crazy, Stupid Love, perhaps snagging a solid $20 million.

Speaking of which, after a lackluster start in the fifth position, thanks to The Change-Up, Crazy, Stupid, Love could be in for it yet again. Similar to Friends with Benefits, the film will be lucky to hold onto half of its opening earnings and take in another $10 million. Cowboys & Aliens could see a big drop as well because while it was able to edge out The Smurfs in week one, it was only because it opened in more theaters; The Smurfs had the higher per theater average. Plus, Cowboys & Aliens will be in direct competition with Rise of the Planet of the Apes whereas there are no family friendly animations entering the race. While Cowboys & Aliens could fall about 59% like Battle: Los Angeles and earn $18 million, The Smurfs could come in with another $20 million, courtesy of a G-Force sized 45% week two fall.

Captain America: The First Avenger took a rough week two tumble, quite similar to The Green Lantern. Should the trend continue, Captain America should expect another steep drop, perhaps as much as 55%. Should that be the case, Captain America’s week three haul will be about $11.5 million. As expected, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2’s drop has leveled out quite a bit, going from 72% to just 53.7%. That should be the case this week as well, however, on a much lesser level. If Potter drops another 50%, it’ll earn about $11 million in week three, leaving it just behind Captain America on the top ten.

While both Friends with Benefits and Horrible Bosses will take hefty hits thanks to the new comedy competition, both should have no trouble remaining in the top ten as there’s quite a gap between them and the rest, save for Transformers: Dark of the Moon. Lucky for Friends with Benefits, it’s got enough of a lead on Horrible Bosses to hold onto the eighth position even with a 50% drop. That would leave it with about $4.5 million whereas Horrible Bosses is poised to earn another $4 million courtesy of a 45% fall. Lastly, Transformers will continue on its 50% weekly decline, losing half of its week five profits for a $3 million week six intake.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)