We’ve got a lot of new items hitting theaters this weekend. Of the four, Final Destination 5 will undoubtedly come out on top. Rocking more positive reviews than one would expect and a devoted fan base, the fifth installment looks to pull in at least as much as the fourth film, but likely a little more, perhaps about $30 million. Comedies haven’t faired too well recently, but there’s a chance the action element will give 30 Minutes or Less a bit of a boost. Odds are it won’t make nearly as much as Sony’s summer 2010 action/comedy release, The Other Guys, but it could be on par with Pineapple Express and come in with about $21 million.
As for The Help, I’ve got a bit of an edge predicting that one as it enjoyed an early Wednesday release. It managed to pull in about $5.5 million on Wednesday, so, should that number hold steady, The Help could be heading towards a $15 million opening weekend. Lastly, we’ve got Fox’s Glee the 3D Concert Movie hitting 2,040 theaters. Sure, the show’s got a following, but it’s likely only a fraction of the size of Justin Bieber’s. In fact, the Glee movie won’t come anywhere close to Never Say Never’s $9,505 per theater average, maybe only earning as much as a film like Fame and posting about $7 million by the end of the weekend.
As for the vets, Rise of the Planet of the Apes should have no trouble holding on strong as it’s got zero in-genre competition and is being rewarded with an additional 43 theaters. Should Rise of the Planet of the Apes have District 9-sized staying power, it’ll lose about half of its week one profits, giving it about $27 million this time around. With zero family fare arriving, The Smurfs could very well maintain its slow decline, losing another 45% and leaving it with $11 million for week three. On the other hand, Cowboys & Aliens will likely continue its far faster decline, perhaps losing as much as 60% courtesy of Final Destination 5’s grand entrance. Should that be the case, Cowboys & Aliens is looking at a $6 million week three haul.
The final two positions on the top ten could have been tough calls as last week we had four films hovering around the $12/$13 million mark, but considering both Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Crazy, Stupid, Love are losing quite a few theaters this weekend, The Change-Up and Captain America: The First Avenger should be able to hold on another week. Should both lose a little more than half their profits, The Change-Up will just edge out Captain America’s $6 million intake, and perhaps Cowboys & Aliens too, with about $6.5 million.
1. Final Destination 5
2. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
4. 30 Minutes or Less
5. The Help
6. The Smurfs
7. Glee the 3D Concert Movie
8. The Change-Up
9. Cowboys & Aliens
10. Captain America: The First Avenger
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)