There are three 3,000+ theater openings this weekend, but none are poised to be solid performers. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World is getting the widest release, hitting 3,295 theaters, but round four looks to fall far flatter than its predecessors. Spy Kids 3D: Game Over is the strongest opener of the franchise with a $33.4 million start, but the fourth film will likely be on par with the second film, The Island of Lost Dreams, and start its run with about $16 million. Arriving in 3,114 theaters is the remake of Tom Holland’s Fright Night. Sure, the film is a horror comedy and 30 Minutes or Less is an action comedy, but they’re both targeting the same demographic, and considering 30 Minutes or Less‘ week one earnings, that group isn’t all that interested in going to the movie theater lately. Should Fright Night have a $4,616 per theater average like 30 Minutes or Less, it’ll open with about $14 million.
Conan looks to have a tough time too as its big name isn’t all that big. The Khal Drogo fans will come out in masses, but there just aren’t enough to push Conan‘s week one earnings past about $15 million, similar to other period battle films with weak starts like King Arthur, Alexander and Kingdom of Heaven. Also getting a wide release, albeit on a much lesser level, is the book-to-film adaptation One Day. Due out in 1,719 theaters, One Day could wind up posting similar numbers to another Anne Hathaway film, Love and Other Drugs. Should One Day also begin its run with $3,967 per theater, it’ll amass about $7 million.
As for our box office vets, both Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help will still be strong threats, The Help likely snagging the top spot. While Apes ended the previous weekend with more cash, ever since, The Help has been edging it out. The Help’s got a very good shot at falling just 35% and earning another $17 million. However, Rise of the Planets of the Apes will likely still maintain a modest fall as Fright Night and Conan don’t have as wide of an appeal and don’t pose a terribly big threat. Should it drop just 45%, Apes will post $14 million for week three.
After a lackluster start, Final Destination 5 will sadly see a harsh fall. In true horror movie fashion, FD5 will likely drop about 60%, quite similar to Scream 4, and only finish week two with about $7 million. The Smurfs has been enjoying a steady decline and will continue to do so thanks to the fact that Spy Kids isn’t the strongest competitor. However, this will likely be the film’s biggest fall, perhaps losing 45% of its week three profits. Should that be the case, The Smurfs will come in with about $7 million.
Things aren’t looking good for 30 Minutes or Less. After establishing itself as one of the weakest comedies of the summer, it’ll lose at least half of its profits, perhaps only coming in with another $6 million. Thanks to Cowboys & Aliens’ steeper decline, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 could get one more week in the top ten. Should Cowboys & Aliens lose another 50% and Harry Potter just 45%, Harry will top Cowboys & Aliens’ $3.5 million with about $4 million.
1. The Help
2. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World
3. Conan the Barbarian
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
5. Fright Night
6. Final Destination 5
7. The Smurfs
8. One Day
9. 30 Minutes or Less
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)