We’ve got three new wide releases arriving this week, but all are getting rather modest openings. Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark tops the bunch with 2,760 theaters. While it’d be nice to see it have as strong an opening as The Last Exorcism with a $7,087 per theater average, it’s more likely to come in on par with Insidious at $5,511 per location, which would give it a total of $15 million for the weekend. Colombiana is set to debut with 2,614 theater and after the action disaster that was last weekend’s Conan the Barbarian, Colombiana will be lucky to post a $3,000 per theater average and snag $7 million for week one. The last of the newcomers is Our Idiot Brother and, even with a massive ensemble cast, it could get bogged down by the recent comedy funk and pull in no more than The Change-Up and its $13 million opening.
As for our old-timers, the large majority could see rather minimal drops courtesy of the lack of big competition. After a superb first two weeks, The Help should have no trouble holding on yet again, perhaps only losing 30% in week three. That would leave it with about $14 million, just missing out on that top spot. Rise of the Planet of the Apes has yet to lose more than half of its earning in a single weekend and the trend certainly won’t stop now. Should Rise lose just 45% of its week three profits, it’ll take another $8.5 million to the bank.
The only good thing about having a weak start? There’s less room to fall. After a mere $11.6 million opening, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World could benefit from both the lack of youth competition and kids trying to squeeze in some time at the movies before heading back to school and lose just 45% of its week one profits, giving it another $6 million. Conan the Barbarian, on the other hand, looks to come and go pretty quickly, losing half of its opening earnings and taking just $5 million this time around. The Smurfs has maintained an impressively slow decline since its debut and looks to hold on tight in week five. In fact, there’s a good shot it still won’t lose more than 45% of its earnings, perhaps taking in another $4 million.
Fright Night looks to be a sad story. After an incredibly weak $7.7 million opening, Fright Night might get slashed in half, only taking in another $4 million in its second weekend. Wrapping up the top ten will likely be Final Destination 5, which, as expected, lost a significant amount of its week one profits this past weekend. Thanks to Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, it looks to be another rough one for FD5, perhaps forcing it to wave goodbye to half of its week two profits, leaving it with just under $4 million for week three.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark
2. The Help
3. Our Idiot Brother
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
5. Colombiana
6. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World
7. Conan the Barbarian
8. The Smurfs
9. Fright Night
10. Final Destination 5
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
