Box Office Predications: Contagion To Dethrone The Help

Technically we’ve got four new wide releases, but of the four, only one is arriving in more than 2,000 theaters. Just as the virus in the film benefits from a timely strike, arriving just after the Thanksgiving holiday allowing it to spread quickly via travelers, Contagion will reap the benefits of a timely debut, facing minimal competition. Even though we’re well past the summer season, Contagion‘s cast could boost its earnings letting it take in just as much as the somewhat similar June 2008 film The Happening. Should that be the case, Contagion will begin its run with about $30 million

While The Help is likely to hold on strong, it won’t be strong enough to fight off Warrior. Should Warrior follow in the footsteps of The Fighter and post about $5,000 per theater, it’ll wrap weekend #1 with $10 million. After a spectacular holiday weekend, The Help gets another 92 theaters, bringing the total to just under 3,000. The film’s per theater average has yet to fall below $5,000, and while this might be the week that ruins that streak, it won’t do so by much. If The Help posts $4,500 per theater, it’ll take another $13 million in its fifth week, bringing the $25 million-budgeted film’s domestic total to about $137 million.

As for our other two wide releases, neither are poised to earn much. Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star looks to follow in the footsteps of other awkward comedies featuring odd male leads. Should Bucky post numbers like Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story or The Rocker, it’s looking at an extremely weak $2 million start. Things aren’t looking good for Creature either. Thanks to zero advertising and the fact that both Shark Night 3D and Apollo 18 are only in their second weeks and slightly expanding, it’ll be lucky to earn about $800 per location and take maybe about $1 million its first weekend out.

Still, like most horror films, both Shark Night 3D and Apollo 18 will likely see hefty week-two falls, making the third position on the top ten an easy grab for The Debt. With another 48 theaters taking the film, The Debt could enjoy a minimal week two drop, perhaps just 35%, which would give it another $6.5 million. As for last weekend’s horror duo, while I’d normally slap them both with 60% falls, thanks to the lack of in-genre competition this time around, neither should lose more than half of their week one profits. Should that be the case, both will come in with about $5 million with Shark Night just edging out Apollo 18 for the fourth position thanks to an additional 42 theaters.

Even after a strong four-day weekend, Rise of the Planet of the Apes looks to slide a bit as it must wave goodbye to about 300 theaters. Between that and the fact that the film is entering its sixth week, Apes could take its biggest tumble yet, perhaps falling 55%, leaving it with $3.5 million. Losing 260 theaters, Columbiana looks to lose a nice chunk of its profits, too, at least as compared to its meager week one-to-two fall. After dropping just 28.3%, the film could watch about 40% of its profits slip away, giving it another $4.5 million and possibly letting it take the seventh position.

With a whopping 463 theaters being chopped, we can say goodbye to Spy Kids: All the Time in the World for good (and hopefully the franchise, too), but losing just 159 theaters, Our Idiot Brother could still be a contender. Should the film follow up its 22.3% week one to two fall with a 40% one for week two to three, it’ll still snag about $3 million, which is more than enough to place it ahead of both Bucky Larson and Creature, likely pushing Creature out of the top ten.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)