Box Office Predictions: Moneyball Works For Baseball And The Box Office

With last week’s newcomers underperforming big time, save for The Lion King (in 3D) , these four new wide releases will all have a chance at snagging a top spot. Moneyball is likely the one to watch as not only does it star Brad Pitt, but it’s rocking some stellar reviews. Will this be the next The Blind Side? Probably not, but Moneyball should have no trouble matching another Aaron Sorkin film, The Social Network. Should that be the case, Moneyball could wrap its first weekend out with about $22 million.

While Taylor Lautner isn’t heading towards Twilight-like earnings with Abduction, the film might fall between I Am Number Four‘s $20 million start and Surrogates $15 million opening with about $17 million. Dolphin Tale could flounder a bit courtesy of a Lion King ripple effect in the kid’s department, but it should be able to match another ocean drama, Soul Surfer. If Dolphin Tale also posts a $4,789 per theater average, it’ll kick off its run with about $15 million. Last up for wide releases is Killer Elite, an action thriller that boasts an all-star cast, but might be overshadowed by the power of both Taylor Lautner and Brad Pitt. Even with Robert DeNiro and Clive Owen, Killer Elite could wind up being another The Mechanic for Jason Statham and start out with just $11 million.

It’s tough to predict where Lion King will end up as nobody expected it to open with $30 million, let alone snag the top spot. Clearly there’s interest in revisiting a pastime favorite or introducing a new crop of kids to the beloved Disney animation, so Lion King should hold on rather strong in week two. It might only fall about 35% and add another $19 million to its pot. While Contagion enjoyed a modest week one to two fall, with four new wide releases entering the race, the week two to three drop could be a bit steeper, perhaps as much as 50%. Should that be the case, Contagion will take another $8 million. Drive could come and go faster than it deserves. After a modest start, the Ryan Gosling starrer could lose as much as half of its week one earnings, giving it another $6 million for round two.

The Help has yet to drop more than 40% in a single weekend and certainly won’t start now. Should it lose 35% of its week six profits it’ll take $4 million this time around. In true horror movie fashion, Straw Dogs could be approaching a 60% loss. With zero romantic comedies entering the ring, that steep drop could be just enough for I Don’t Know How She Does It to snag the ninth position with a 45% drop and $2.5 million, leaving Straw Dogs in tenth with its $2 million intake.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Straw Dogs

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)