Box Office Predictions: Can The Cancer Comedy 50/50 Beat The Odds?

To close out September we’ve got four new wide releases. Of the bunch, What’s Your Number? is due out in the most theaters, hitting about 3,000. It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a new romantic comedy of this nature, which might bode somewhat well for the Anna Farris starrer. What’s Your Number? could find itself just below the summer release Friends with Benefits and kick off its run with about $16 million. Debuting in just under 2,500 theaters is the cancer comedy 50/50. Courtesy of a little Oscar buzz, this one could post a higher per theater average than What’s Your Number? giving it the cash it needs to snag that top spot. Should 50/50 earn about $7,500 per location, similar to Funny People, 50/50 will wrap weekend one with about $18 million.

In the horror/thriller department, we’re getting Universal’s Dream House. Considering Straw Dogs, Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D all experienced lackluster openings, things aren’t looking good for this one. Even if Dream House is lucky enough to post a $4,375 per theater average like Devil, it’ll only earn about $11 million. Last up for the newcomers is Courageous. Just about everything is working against this one as compared to the competition. It’s had a far less extensive promotional campaign and will only play in 1,161 theaters. This one could see a similar opening to the April 2010 release, Letters to God, and kick off its run with just about $1.5 million.

The big question this weekend is, what’s the fate of The Lion King? Clearly Disney nixed the plan to give it a limited two week run and that’ll likely be a very smart decision. After a stellar opening and a mere 27.3% week two to three drop, odds are, Lion King won’t lose much more than 35% of its week two profits this time around. Should that be the case, the beloved Disney classic will post another $14 million and take the third position on the top ten.

Even though it’s still got less theaters, Moneyball will likely put its higher per theater average to use, topping Dolphin Tale yet again and, this time around, widening the gap, too. Should Moneyball’s $6,516 average drop to about $4,000, it’ll wrap week two with another $12 million. Dolphin Tale, on the other hand, could see a heftier fall. Should Dolphin Tale drop 45% like Mr. Popper’s Penguins did in its second week out, it’ll be taking another $10 million to the bank.

Abduction didn’t have a half bad start, but there’s no reason to think it’ll have longer legs than I Am Number Four, which would have it heading toward a 47% week two drop. Should that be the case, Abduction could snag another $5.5 million and the seventh position. However, if Abduction holds on that strong, that likely means Killer Elite will take a tougher tumble, perhaps as much as 55%, which would give it just $4 million for week two.

Contagion’s been on a rather slow decline and will likely continue on that path. After a 35.1% week one to two drop and then a 41.9% week two to three drop, that number could inch up the slightest bit to about 45%, still leaving Contagion with about $4.5 million, potentially just enough to top Killer Elite. Things haven’t been going too well for Drive, which saw its minimal week one earnings slashed in half during week two, but it could hold on for one last week in the top ten. Should Drive’s cash flow get chopped in half yet again, its last showing on the chart will be worth about $3 million.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Drive

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)