Sure, there are four wide releases arriving this weekend, but, in lieu of the upcoming holiday and the franchise’s immense success, all eyes will be on Paranormal Activity 3. When the first film made its wide debut, it only took in $19.6 million. But, not only did that money come in after Paranormal Activity had a 12-theater limited release, but it went into the bank of a film that cost a mere $15,000 to make. Round two had a more traditional release of 3,216 theaters at once and took in $40.7 million with a stellar $12,649 per theater average. So, what’s the fate of the third? With the Saw franchise long gone and no other horror movie moving in, Paranormal Activity 3 should have no trouble earning just as much as the second, if not more.
The other major release is Paul W.S. Anderson’s The Three Musketeers. Unfortunately, this one could be the Legend of Zorro all over again, which, back in 2005, took in a mere $16.3 million on a $75 million budget. Even if The Three Musketeers posts the same per theater average, $4,638, it’ll only take about $14 million to start.
The other two wide releases are poised to have a tough time too, simply because they really aren’t going very wide at all. Johnny English Reborn is due out in 1,551 theaters and, should it pull a Nanny McPhee and post a per theater average half the value of the original’s, it’ll wrap its first weekend with just $3 million. As for The Mighty Macs, with a rather low key promotional campaign and just 975 theaters, it’ll be lucky to snag about $1 million, somewhat similar to The Perfect Game.
It’s going to be a close match between Footloose and Real Steel for that third spot. Considering Real Steel had the higher per theater average despite being in its second week, my money is on that one taking another 40% hit, earning another $10 million and just edging out Footloose. Should Footloose drop the same amount, it’ll take $9.5 million and the fourth spot.
After a lackluster start, The Thing is heading towards the infamous horror movie 50% week two loss. Cutting its opening weekend profits in half will leave The Thing with just $4.5 million and the sixth position on the top ten. With The Thing’s big loss and a rather slow decline thus far, The Ides of March should have no trouble earning just more than $4.5 million and stealing that fifth spot.
Speaking of slow declines, if Dolphin Tale and Moneyball maintain theirs, they should make just enough to outdo Johnny English. If both lose just 35%, Dolphin Tale will take $4 million and Moneyball $3.5 million. Unfortunately for 50/50, even if it manages to hold its percent loss to just 35% too, it’ll still come in just under Johnny English with about $2.5 million for its fourth week.
1. Paranormal Activity 3
2. The Three Musketeers
3. Real Steel
5. The Ides of March
6. The Thing
7. Dolphin Tale
9. Johnny English Reborn
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)