Box Office Predictions: Breaking Dawn Takes Top Spot But Might Not Break Twilight Saga Records

The time has come; The Twilight Saga is back to demolish box office records via painfully unworthy material. Due out in 4,061 theaters, Breaking Dawn – Part 1 could at the very least be Eclipse all over again. In the summer of 2010, Eclipse opened with a strong $64.8 million, but it was up against two solid performers, newcomer The Last Airbender and Toy Story 3, which was still going strong in its third week. The big question is, could Breaking Dawn make the massive leap and trump Eclipse to come closer to New Moon‘s $142.8 million opening? It’s doubtful, but that doesn’t mean Breaking Dawn won’t come close. Should Breaking Dawn find itself with a per theater average that’s just slightly less than New Moon, perhaps about $30,000, it’ll post an impressive $120 million for its opening weekend.

Also making a wide debut this weekend is the star studded Happy Feet Two. However, it looks as though Elijah Wood, Robin Williams, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon, Sofi Vegara and Hank Azaria – or at least their voices – will be no match for The Twilight Saga. Back in 2006, with a Thanksgiving release, the first Happy Feet movie opened with just $41.5 million. But now, with Puss in Boots still a solid contender and Breaking Dawn snatching up a large majority of the weekend income, Happy Feet Two could accumulate just $28 million on an $8,000 per theater average in 3,600+ theaters.

In the veteran realm, Immortals could wind up holding on quite strong thanks to the lack of in-genre competition. Sure, the Kellan Lutz fans will flock to Twilight, but those looking for something a bit more, well, adult will be skipping both Breaking Dawn and the family-friendly animated option for some chiseled ab action à la Tarsem Singh. Should Immortals fall just 35%, it’ll take $20 million in its second weekend. On the other hand, despite a strong start, sour word of mouth could lead to Jack and Jill’s fast demise. Should it drop the same amount as the most recent Madea installment, it’ll lose 60% of its profits and take just $10 million this time around.

While Puss in Boots should continue to hold on rather strong, Happy Feet Two will certainly give it a bit of a knock. After a mere 3% decline from week one to two and then a 25.2% drop from week two to three, Puss could wind up dropping 40%, but still take another $15 million. As for Tower Heist, it could be heading straight towards another 46.8% drop despite the fact that zero live action comedies are entering the race. Should that be the case, Tower Heist will wrap weekend three with another $7 million in the bank.

Things aren’t looking too good for J. Edgar. Even though it opened a little stronger than 2009’s Invictus, should it see a somewhat similar, but slightly lesser week two drop, it’ll still lose about 45% of its weekend one earnings, leaving it with just $6 million more. If A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas stays on line with Escape from Guantanamo Bay, it’ll be heading towards a 45% week three loss, which would give it about $3.5 million. In Time’s percent change has been creeping up and up since its opening and the trend looks to continue in week four. If In Time loses half of its week three profits, it’ll post about $2 million for week four. As for that last spot on the top ten, there’s a good chance Paranormal Activity 3’s landslide decline will allow Footloose to hold on for just one more week with about $1.5 million.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Footloose

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)