This is going to be a tough one. Due to the holiday, we’ve got new films opening all throughout the week – The Adventures of Tintin and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo on Wednesday, We Bought a Zoo on Friday and The Darkest Hour and War Horse on Sunday.
Will The Adventures of Tintin be the next Alvin and the Chipmunks (the first two, at least)? Definitely not, but being one of the only strictly kid-friendly flick in theaters, it could snag as much as last year’s Yogi Bear, about $16 million Friday to Sunday, and take a total of $30 million for the full five days. As for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, while intrigue is high, that two and a half hour plus running time could turn some moviegoers off, leaving that top position to Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol, which is set to expand to 3,448 theaters. It’s got no shot at holding onto that $30,083 per theater average from last weekend, but it could still maintain a solid $10,000 one, which could give it $34 million for the three day weekend and then as much as $55 million for the five-day run. However, that doesn’t mean The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo won’t put up a fight. It’ll just miss out on the #1 spot if it takes $30 million this weekend and then $50 million from Wednesday to Sunday.
We Bought a Zoo isn’t arriving until Friday, but in terms of its three-day opening weekend, if it weren’t for the vast amount of solid competition, it could have earned as much as 2008’s Marley and Me, but, instead, it looks to post about $15 million less, perhaps about $20 million. Even with War Horse and The Darkest Hour making their debuts on Sunday, both will still manage to crack the top ten. War Horse could earn as much as Marley and Me in its opening day, about $14 million. The Darkest Hour won’t come close to that, but it still could kick its run off with something similar to Gulliver’s Travels, perhaps about $3.5 million.
I’d say Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows would follow in its predecessor’s footsteps and lose 40% of its week one profits, but thanks to the tough new competition and the fact that Game of Shadows didn’t match the first film’s opening number, it could see its profits slashed by 60%, leaving it with just $16 million for the weekend. Alvin and the Chipmunks, on the other hand, could hold up rather well with Tintin possibly not posing much of a threat. Similar to The Squeakquel, Chipwrecked might only fall 30%, which would give it about $16 million, putting it neck and neck with both Sherlock Holmes and Tintin.
After taking a tough 43.8% week two tumble, New Year’s Eve could be in for a similar drop despite the approaching holiday. If it loses another 43%, it’ll take just $4 million to the bank for the eighth position. The Sitter faces a similar issue, but to a larger extent, which means it could slide right by The Darkest Hour and The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1. If Breaking Dawn falls 45% again, but The Sitter’s profits are slashed in half, The Sitter will wrap week three with just over $2 million while Breaking Dawn takes just under $2.5 million and the last spot on the top ten.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
2. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
3. We Bought a Zoo
4. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
5. The Adventures of Tintin
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
7. War Horse
8. New Year’s Eve
9. The Darkest Hour
10. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
