It’s always nice to ring in a new month, but sadly, the first weekend in February tends to mark a bit of a dip at the box office. Last year The Roommate led the pack with only $15 million and Sanctum trailed behind with just under $9.5 million and the first weekend of February in 2010 was down 9.3%. Can Chronicle, Big Miracle and The Woman in Black return some clout to February weekend one?
The Woman in Black is getting the widest release and Daniel Radcliffe is certainly a draw, but the fact that The Woman in Black is a bit of an offbeat horror flick, a British ghost story rather than an American slasher flick, could knock down its numbers a bit. The Woman in Black could wind up with a week one haul similar to that of The Eye, about $12 million. Chronicle is the next widest release and my money is on that one, both in terms of quality and betting that it’ll be the weekend’s big winner. After The Devil Inside scored a whopping $33.7 million opening weekend and superhero film after superhero film earns a fair share, there’s no reason to think this combo won’t strike a chord with moviegoers. Chronicle could be heading towards a Kick-Ass-sized opening of about $20 million. Last up for the newbies is Big Miracle and it could wind up being a surprise hit like Dolphin Tale or a big bust. Thanks to a rather weak marketing campaign, I’m betting on the latter, perhaps opening with just $9 million like We Bought a Zoo.
Over in old timer territory we’ve got The Grey, which is actually right on track with a 2011 Liam Neeson release, Unknown. Should The Grey also take a 42.5% week two hit, it’ll come in with another $11 million. Underworld: Awakening didn’t fall as hard as Evolution in its second weekend out, but it also didn’t make as much as Evolution did its first weekend; the less you climb, the less room you have to fall. At this point, the two could level out, putting Awakening on track for a 50% drop and $6 million week-three intake.
One for the Money opened stronger than expected, but even with no new romantic comedies entering the race, it could take a 50% week two hit, similar to When in Rome. A drop like that would leave it with just about $5.5 million and could give Red Tails the opportunity to surpass it. Red Tails lost 44.8% from week one to two, but that should level out a bit to about 40%, which would let it take another $6 million to the bank. After a lackluster start, things won’t get much better for Man on a Ledge. In fact, it could plummet 50% and only make enough to snag the last spot on the top ten, about $4 million.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close has been underperforming right from the start, but with the Academy Awards right around the corner, at least its percent change shouldn’t be too steep. If it loses 30% of its profits again, it’ll wrap weekend seven with $4.5 million. More Oscar nominations mean more money at the box office? Not necessarily, but only a week after getting its wide release boost, The Descendants should have far more steam, perhaps only dropping about 15% for a $5.5 million week 12 intake.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Chronicle
2. The Woman in Black
3. The Grey
4. Big Miracle
5. Underworld: Awakening
6. Red Tails
7. One For the Money
8. The Descendants
9. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
10. Man on a Ledge
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
