The odds are most certainly in Lionsgates’ favor for the big release of The Hunger Games. Not only is the film tracking incredibly well, Fandango reporting nearly 2,000 showtimes are already sold out, but there was only one new wide release last weekend and this weekend, The Hunger Games is without any new competition at all. There’s been some talk of The Hunger Games topping The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn –Part 1’s $138 million opening and while I’d love to see that happen, I’m putting Hunger Games on Alice in Wonderland’s level with a $116 million start, which is still an incredible accomplishment.
The second spot will go to that one new wide release from last weekend, 21 Jump Street. After a strong $36.3 million start and no new comedy competition entering the arena, 21 Jump Street could only lose 35% of its starting profits, letting it take another $23 million to the bank. Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax saw a 41.4% week one to two hit, but that could be reduced to about 35% as it has far less to lose. Should that be the cast, The Lorax will post about $14 million for weekend three. John Carter took a tough hit after its $30 million opening and now with The Hunger Games stepping into the ring, the same will be true this time around. Should the film lose half of its earnings yet again, John Carter will only collect another $7 million.
The rest of the films filling out the top ten might not have far to fall, but none will post more than $3.5 million. Project X has been falling rather fast and the trend looks to continue, as the film is likely to lose half of its $4 million weekend three earnings for a mere $2 million in weekend four. This hard hit could give Act of Valor a chance to hold onto that #5 spot. Act of Valor has had a tough past few weeks, but has proved to have longer legs that Project X and might have a chance of barely topping Project X’s $2 million. After a dismal start, A Thousand Words saw a rather moderate decline and could experience the same from week two to three, taking in another $2 million.
Should Journey 2: The Mysterious Island use those long legs yet again, it might earn enough to top Safe House, the former on its way to earn about $1.5 million and the latter just under that. As for Casa De Mi Padre, even with its rather strong start, it could be heading straight towards a week two slashing, not giving it the chance to earn enough to top This Means War, which looks to post another $1.3 million.
1. The Hunger Games
2. 21 Jump Street
3. Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax
4. John Carter
5. Act of Valor
6 Project X
7. A Thousand Words
8. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
9. Safe House
10. This Means War