Sure we’ve got two new wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, but the big question is, what’ll happen to The Hunger Games? The only problem with opening big is that you’ve got a long way to fall and, should The Hunger Games experience a week two drop similar to its company on the biggest opening weekend list, it’s looking at a 52.5% drop, just like The Dark Knight. Then again, 47.8% of $152.5 million is still a ton of money, $72 million to be exact.
As for the newcomers, Mirror Mirror and Wrath of the Titans will undoubtedly get swept up in the Hunger Games storm. Mirror Mirror is marketed as a film for everyone, but the material does run the risk of isolating moviegoers without little ones. Mirror Mirror might barely manage to out-earn Mr. Popper’s Penguins with about $20 million. While Clash of the Titans made a killing at the box office, its poor reception left Wrath of the Titans with a tough uphill battle. There’s absolutely no chance Wrath will match Clash’s $61.2 million opening, but, oddly enough, it might earn as much as Tarsem Singh’s last release, Immortals, and take about $32 million.
Even with The Hunger Games plowing through the box office, 21 Jump Street still held on fairly well and looks to do the same in its third weekend out. Should it drop 43.6% again, it’ll earn another $11.5 million. With no new animated movies entering the race, Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax will likely continue its 40% weekly decline and take another $8 million to the bank. Lucky for John Carter, there’s a pretty wide gap between it and Act of Valor, so even if John Carter takes another tough hit, perhaps 50%, that $2.5 million will still be enough to secure the fifth position on the top ten. As for Act of Valor, it’s looking at a 40% drop for another $1.22 million.
Should A Thousand Words drop about 45% again, it’ll post $1.07 million while Project X could suffer another 50% slashing, leaving it with just under $1 million. As for the surprise entry, October Baby, should its $4,352 per theater average drop down to about $3,000, it might snag another $1.17 million, giving it enough to edge out both Project X and A Thousand Words. It’ll be a tight race between Safe House and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island for that final slot, but my money is on Safe House to be the one that holds on for just one more weekend as it’s stayed on top of Journey 2 throughout most of their run.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Hunger Games
2. Wrath of the Titans
3. Mirror Mirror
4. 21 Jump Street
5. Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax
6. John Carter
7. Act of Valor
8. October Baby
9. A Thousand Words
10. Project X
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
