The big weekend has arrived! Will “The Dark Knight Rises” become the biggest movie of the summer, topping the record-breaking start posted by “The Avengers?” I’m actually going to bet against it. The movie is getting the second widest release ever with 4,404 theaters, but the only way it could possibly top “The Avengers” is if it manages to up “The Dark Knight’s” $36,283 per theater average to at least $47,500 for a $209 million haul. Trouble is, that’s a pretty big leap and while “The Dark Knight Rises” could hit $45,000 per theater for a weekend total of $198 million, “The Avengers” might be out of its reach.
With “The Dark Knight Rises” taking all the new release territory for itself that leaves us with the box office veterans to fill out the rest of the top ten. With no new animation contenders entering the race, “Ice Age Continental Drift” should manage to maintain 60% of its opening profits for a weekend two total of $28 million. “The Amazing Spider-Man,” on the other hand, could feel the wrath of Batman, but could also pick up all those moviegoers who can’t get into “The Dark Knight Rises.” The balance between the two could leave it with a 45% drop for $19 million.
“Ted” has been enjoying a slow decline and should have no trouble continuing to do so, claiming everyone in search of a good comedy. Should it lose 40% of its weekend three profits, it’ll take another $13 million to the bank. “Brave” should continue to creep its way down as well, possibly dropping 45% for a $6 million fifth weekend out while “Savages” might take the tougher hit we thought it would endure from weekend one to two, about 50%, for a total of $4.5 million in weekend three. Thankfully “Magic Mike” managed to level out with a 42.3% drop after taking a 60% blow and it should be able to continue to keep that number low, possibly dropping the same for another $5 million.
In true Tyler Perry form, “Madea’s Witness Protection” is making a swift exit, likely dropping 50% from weekend three to four for a $3 million intake. “Moonrise Kingdom,” on the other hand, will have yet another strong weekend, possibly only losing 25% for another $2.5 million. Lastly, “Katy Perry: Part of Me” has had no luck whatsoever and the streak will likely continue, the movie not earning enough to trump “Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted” and its $2 million haul to stay in the top ten.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. Ice Age: Continental Drift
3. The Amazing Spider-Man
4. Ted
5. Brave
6. Magic Mike
7. Savages
8. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
