What’s in store for “The Dark Knight Rises” in weekend two? Should it stay on a similar path as “The Dark Knight,” it’ll take a 52.5% hit for another $76 million. A ways away should be newcomer “The Watch.” With zero comedies having dropped last weekend and no new ones entering the race this time around, “The Watch” could match another Ben Stiller-starrer, “Tropic Thunder,” with about $25 million. If “Step Up Revolution” manages to match its predecessor, it’ll post a $6,494 per theater average at 3,168 locations for an opening weekend total of $20 million, which could make it the franchise’s biggest opener should it top the first film’s $20.7 million start.
The large majority of the box office old-timers took tough hits last weekend, but things should level out for most this time around. After a rough 56.2% slashing, “Ice Age: Continental Drift” shouldn’t have to worry about losing more than 45% and possibly earn another $11 million. “The Amazing Spider-Man’s” whopping 68.6% drop very likely had something to do with “The Dark Knight Rises” entering the competition and while Batman will still overshadow Spider-Man, Spider-Man should at least take a lesser hit this time around, perhaps about 50% for another $5.5 million. While “Ted” did suffer its biggest fall yet, it’ll undoubtedly bounce back, only dropping 40% from weekend four to five, using a $6 million haul to snag the fifth spot from “The Amazing Spider-Man.”
Even with “The Dark Knight Rises” snatching up all the sales, “Brave” still managed to hold on and only drop 46% from weekend four to five, so there’s no reason to think that that percent change will get any higher from weekend five to six. Should it drop 40%, it’ll take another $3.5 million to the bank. “Magic Mike,” on the other hand, can’t seem to bounce back after taking a 60% tumble from weekend one to two. Should it see its profits slashed in half again, it’ll be left with just over $2 million. Lucky for “Magic Mike,” “Savages” is on an even faster decline, so it should have no trouble securing the eighth spot while “Savages” takes #9 with another $1.5 million. And lucky for “Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection” it’s got enough of an edge on “Moonrise Kingdom” to assume the final spot on the top ten even if it drops by 50% for just $1 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Dark Knight Rises
2. The Watch
3. Step Up Revolution
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift
5. Ted
6. The Amazing Spider-Man
7. Brave
8. Magic Mike
9. Savages
10. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
