This weekend’s new releases have a good chance at shaking things up. “The Bourne Legacy” is due to make its way into 3,746 theaters and while it’s highly unlikely it’ll match “The Bourne Ultimatum’s” $69.3 million start or “The Bourne Supremacy’s” $52.5 million opening, it could top “The Bourne Identity’s” $27 million opening weekend haul with $30 million of its own. “The Campaign” is also making its way into 3,000+ theaters, but considering Will Ferrell’s recent track record, it likely won’t perform as well as Warner Bros is hoping. Even with the election year appeal, “The Campaign” will be lucky to match director Jay Roach’s last production, “Dinner for Schmucks,” which began its run with $23.5 million. Last up for the new releases is “Hope Springs,” which debuted on Wednesday to the tune of $2.3 million at 2,361 theaters and will likely go on to make about $15 million its first full weekend out.
No, none of those are particularly big openings, but both “The Campaign” and “The Bourne Legacy” should have no trouble trumping “The Dark Knight Rises” thanks to the film’s 552-theater decline, which could lead to a heftier 50% decline. Should that be the case, “The Dark Knight Rises” will take another $18 million this time around. After a not-so-hot start, “Total Recall” could lose out big time thanks to “The Bourne Legacy.” Should its opening profits get slashed in half, it’ll be left with just $13 million, not even enough to beat “Hope Springs.” “Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days” had a rather lackluster start as well, but that means it has less room to fall and with no other kid-friendly fare entering the race, it might only drop 40% letting it take another $9 million.
With 440 theaters fading away, “Ice Age: Continental Drift” is in for a hefty drop, possibly losing 45% and earning $5 million for its fifth weekend out. “The Watch” is heading towards a similar fate, exiting 22.3% of its theaters and only earning another $3 million for weekend three. After waving goodbye to 707 theaters, “Step Up Revolution” will also wave goodbye to half of its weekend two earnings for just under $3 million in weekend three. “Ted” is going to have to part with 565 theaters, but considering the film is certainly one of the biggest hits of the summer season, it should have no trouble holding on strong enough to take another $3 million and top both “The Watch” and “Step Up Revolution.”
Shockya.com Predictions
1. The Bourne Legacy
2. The Campaign
3. The Dark Knight Rises
4. Hope Springs
5. Total Recall
6. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift
8. Ted
9. The Watch
10. Step Up Revolution
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
