Box Office Predictions: Finding Nemo And Resident Evil To Get The Box Office Back On Track

The only good thing about having one of the worst weekends in recent history? The box office can only improve from here! We’ve got two new wide releases making their debut this second weekend of September, “Finding Nemo 3D” and “Resident Evil: Retribution.” Considering “Finding Nemo” is the highest grossing of all the animated films getting the 3D re-release treatment, just $27 million more than “The Lion King,” there’s no reason to think the 3D version won’t match, if not surpass “The Lion King 3D’s” $30 million start this very same weekend of last year. As for “Resident Evil: Retribution,” that franchise has seen a steady incline ever since the first film hit back in 2002. However, “Retribution” is only getting 2,850 theaters whereas “Afterlife” got 3,203, so a decline is inevitable. Should “Retribution” match “Afterlife’s” per theater average, it’ll kick off its run with $24 million.

A 47.5% weekend one to two drop is pretty impressive for a horror movie, but, courtesy of “Resident Evil,” “The Possession” will likely see a similar drop making the move from weekend two to three, which would leave it with just $5 million. “Lawless” has a good shot at maintaining its percent change as well, just 39.9%. Should that be the case, “Lawless” will post another $3.5 million, closing the gap between itself and “The Possession.

Here’s where we get down to dollars and cents. “The Expendables 2” only had a marginal lead on “The Words,” but considering “The Words” had such a dismal opening, it could lose as much as half of its opening profits this weekend. Should that be the case, “The Words” will only earn another $2.5 million while “The Expendables 2” has a shot at taking another $3 million. There’s also a good chance that “ParaNorman” will earn enough to trump “The Words,” too. Despite the fact that “Finding Nemo” is moving in, “ParaNorman” has had an impressive run and it looks to continue, the film possibly only dropping 40% for a little over $2.5 million its fifth weekend out.

The final three films of the top ten are tough calls, but it looks as though the 8th position will go to fifth-weeker “The Odd Life of Timothy Green.” With “The Bourne Legacy” entering weekend six and experiencing heftier hits, “Timothy Green’s” possible 40% drop will give it $2.2 million, just enough to top “Bourne” should it drop 47% and earn just $2.1 million. With only about $67,000 separating “The Campaign” and “2016 Obama’s America” last weekend, this one’s a tough call, but, considering the likelihood of someone opting to catch a political comedy starring Will Ferrell vs. a political documentary starring Barrack Obama, I’m putting my money on “The Campaign.” If the film sees another 40% loss, it’ll take $2 million and the final spot on the top ten.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. The Campaign

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)