Last weekend was a rough one for the box office, but perhaps “Wreck-It-Ralph” will swoop in and save the day – or the weekend. The film is due in 3,600 theaters and with “Hotel Transylvania” going into its sixth weekend out, we’re in need of some fresh animated material. Two years ago, “Megamind” bowed this same weekend and snagged a solid $46 million to start, a number “Wreck-It-Ralph” could match.
“Flight” is only set to debut in 1,800 theaters, but between Denzel Washington and the film’s awards prospects, it could top “J.Edgar’s” $5,873 per theater average with something more along the lines of $7,000, giving it $12.5 million to start. With a particularly specific target audience, RZA’s “The Man with the Iron Fists” looks to be the lower earner of the new releases, matching “Ninja Assassin’s” $5,320 per theater average for a $10 million start.
Even with “Flight” stealing the viewers aiming to keep up with potential nominees, “Argo” should hold strong, possibly only losing 35% for another $7.5 million. “Cloud Atlas,” on the other hand, should brace itself for a quick decline. If it suffers a 45% loss, it’ll be left with just $5.2 million for its second weekend out, which would allow “Hotel Transylvania” to pass it right by. Even though “Hotel Transylvania” is going up against “Wreck-It-Ralph” in its sixth weekend out, it’s yet to see a significant loss and likely won’t start now. However, it could take its biggest tumble yet, about 40%, which would still leave it with another $5.6 million.
Things should improve for “Paranormal Activity 4” after its 70.7% weekend one to two tumble, but not by much. The franchise’s fourth installment will be lucky to hold onto 50% of last weekend’s $8.5 million intake for a $4.2 million third weekend out. Lucky for “Paranormal Activity 4,” “Silent Hill: Revelation 3D” will be in even worse shape, so it’ll have no trouble staying on top. Should “Silent Hill” suffer a 60% slashing, it’ll take a mere $3.2 million this time around.
There’s a chance both “Taken 2” and “Here Comes the Boom” could sneak their way in between those fast-falling horror movies. Should “Taken 2” take a 50% hit, it’ll post a $3.8 million weekend five total. “Here Comes the Boom” looks to hold on stronger, but considering it was behind “Taken 2” by over $2 million last weekend, even a mere 40% loss won’t put it above “Taken,” and possibly not “Silent Hill” either.
The big question now is how Hurricane Sandy will impact these numbers. I’m inclined to believe those affected by the storm will be itching to get out of their apartments and catch a movie, but, even then, who knows whether a large majority of the theaters in the area will have the power to play them.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Wreck-It-Ralph
2. Flight
3. The Man with the Iron Fists
4. Argo
5. Hotel Transylvania
6. Cloud Atlas
7. Paranormal Activity 4
8. Taken
9. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D
10. Here Comes the Boom
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
