Cue the James Bond theme! “Skyfall” is the only new entry this weekend and it’s certainly going to take advantage of having the spotlight all to itself. “Quantum of Solace” opened big just around this time in 2008 with $67.5 million, but “Skyfall” could go bigger, perhaps inching closer to the $70 million mark like 2007’s “The Bourne Ultimatum.”
Even though “Skyfall” will pull in the big bucks, with no new animation films entering competition, “Wreck-It Ralph” should have no trouble holding strong, likely matching “Hotel Transylvania’s” weekend one to two drop of 36% for another $30 million. With positive reviews, word-of-mouth and some Oscar buzz, “Flight” should maintain, too. Should its $13,217 per theater average dip down to about $8,000, it’ll have a $15 million second weekend out. In its fifth weekend out, “Argo” might have more trouble maintaining such a significantly low weekend-to-weekend drop, but a 30% decline is still quite minimal at this point in its run and would let it take an additional $7 million to the bank.
After a mild start, “The Man with the Iron Fists” could be heading towards a 50% slashing, which would leave it with just $4 million its second weekend out. “Taken 2” enjoyed a particularly strong fifth weekend, but even if it only drops 40% this time around, $3.5 million won’t be enough to overtake “The Man with the Iron Fists.” “Cloud Atlas” could do a double take and suffer another 44% loss, which would give it $3 million more while “Hotel Transylvania” could continue to get wrecked by “Ralph,” dropping 50% yet again for just $2.5 million in weekend seven.
“Paranormal Activity 4” took two hefty hits so far, but considering it doesn’t look to be losing additional theaters this weekend, it could manage to pull in another $2.5 million, which would amount to a 40% loss. “Here Comes the Boom” may not have opened strong, but it’s been enjoying a very slow decline ever since and could continue to do so. Should it lose 30% of its weekend four profits, it’ll take another $2.5 million in weekend five.
2. Wreck-It Ralph
5. The Man with the Iron Fists
6. Taken 2
7. Cloud Atlas
8. Hotel Transylvania
9. Paranormal Activity 4
10. Here Comes the Boom
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)