Will “G.I. Joe: Retaliation” be worth the wait? Based on the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score probably not for viewers, but Paramount should be happy because it still could take in a nice chunk of cash. The first film opened with a strong $54.7 million back in 2009, but with so much time between films and that surprise release delay, the sequel will have lost some steam. We could see a shift similar to “The Expendables,” which had a $6 million dollar gap between opening weekend numbers for the first and second installments. Should “G.I. Joe” experience something comparable, “Retaliation” will begin its run with about $40 million, a nice amount, but also a good distance away from the film’s $135 million production budget.
Not only is “The Host” already drowning in abysmal reviews, but after “Beautiful Creatures” tanked, Stephenie Meyer’s first post-“Twilight” effort could be a major disappointment. Even if it manages to surpass “Beautiful Creatures,” it’s highly unlikely it’ll pull in more than $10 million. Last up for the newcomers is something with a much more powerful form of name recognition, “Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor.” A mouthful, but a lucrative one. In true Tyler Perry fashion, this one should be able to take at least $15 million to the bank, guaranteed.
After a strong $43.6 million start, there’s a good chance “The Croods” could match “How to Train Your Dragon’s” long legs. Should it see a similar weekend one to two drop, “The Croods” will take another $28 million. On the other hand, “Olympus Has Fallen” could take quite the hit with “G.I. Joe” entering the competition. Should it dip 50%, “Olympus Has Fallen” will earn $15 million, which might only be good enough for #4 this time around.
Now that “Oz The Great and Powerful” has been dethroned, down it will go, especially after losing 481 theaters. Should the move from weekend three to four mark another 47% hit, “Oz” will only take another $12 million to the bank. While “The Call” did fall rather hard after its surprisingly stellar start, that percent change could level out, possibly letting it keep 60% of its weekend two profits for a $5 million third weekend out.
Courtesy of word-of-mouth, “Spring Breakers” has a very good shot at maintaining its weekend two profits. Even if it dips 25%, it’ll still tack on another $4 million. “Admission,” on the other hand, could be in for quite the hit. After a lackluster debut, it might still lose half of its opening earns, which would leave it with just $3 million. Lucky for “Admission” both “The Incredible Burt Wonderstone” and “Jack the Giant Slayer” are losing over 1,000 theaters each, so it should have no trouble securing the 9th spot with that minimal intake. As for #10, we’ll give that to “Burt Wonderstone” simply because it’s waving goodbye to just as many theaters as “Jack” and “Identity Thief,” but will have the leg up thanks to its greater intake last weekend.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. G.I. Joe Retaliation
2. The Croods
3. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor
4. Olympus Has Fallen
5. Oz The Great and Powerful
6. The Host
7. The Call
8. Spring Breakers
9. Admission
10. The Incredible Burt Wonderstone
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
