“Evil Dead” is rocking a strong marketing campaign and devout franchise following, but “Jurassic Park” has amassed quite the fan base since its 1993 release, too, and could put up quite the fight for that top spot. Should “Evil Dead” pull a “Nightmare on Elm Street,” it’ll wind up with a solid $32 million to start. And, as for “Jurassic Park,” it likely won’t top “The Lion King 3D’s” $30 million opening, but could still secure $25 million of its own.
With no other new wide releases, the rest of the top ten will go to the box office veterans. “G.I. Joe: Retaliation” is poised to take a tough hit, but it’s got enough of a lead on “The Croods” that, should it dip 55% from weekend one to two, similar to “Rise of Cobra,” it’ll still take the 3rd position with about $18 million. However, “The Croods” could still get pretty close. With no other family-friendly material in the mix, “The Croods” might maintain 60% of its previous weekend profits yet again for another $16 million.
In true Tyler Perry fashion, “Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor” is looking at a big weekend one to two hit, similar to “I Can Do Bad All By Myself” and “For Colored Girls.” Should it drop 60%, it’ll be left with just $8.5 million this time around. Considering “Olympus Has Fallen” already suffered through its weekend two landslide, its decline could start to level out. If it drops 47% from weekend two to three, it’ll get to take another $7.5 million to the bank. Moving into its fifth weekend out and losing steam, “Oz The Great and Powerful” could find itself in a similar position, dropping 45% again for a $6.5 million weekend five haul.
After getting hit with a slew of abysmal reviews and a painfully weak opening weekend intake, things will only get worse for “The Host.” Even after kicking off its run with just $10.6 million, it still could dip as much as 50% from weekend one to two, but fortunately it’s got enough of a lead on “The Call” to claim the 8th spot with its mere $5 million. As for “The Call,” between the positive buzz and the fact that it just doesn’t have very far to fall anymore, there’s no reason to think it’ll lose more than 40% of its weekend three profits, which would add another $3 million to its $40 million domestic total.
Unfortunately for “Admission,” it could already be getting the boot from the top ten courtesy of “Spring Breakers.” Should “Admission” drop 47% again and “Spring Breakers” manage to hold on to 60% of its weekend three profits, the former will take $1.7 million while the latter claims just more than that.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Evil Dead
2. Jurassic Park 3D
3. G.I. Joe Retaliation
4. The Croods
5. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor
6. Olympus Has Fallen
7. Oz The Great and Powerful
8. The Host
9. The Call
10. Spring Breakers
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
