Here we go again. Another wannabe summer tentpole is about to make its way into theaters, but the question is, will “Iron Man 3” move over enough to give “The Great Gatsby” a significant share of the profits? Probably not. If “Iron Man 3” keeps in line with “The Dark Knight Rises,” it’s in for a 60% hit, but thanks to such an enormous opening, that’ll still leave it with $70 million and that’ll be more than enough to trump “Gatsby” and stay at #1. As for “Gatsby,” between the tough competition and lackluster reviews, it’ll be lucky to match the “Les Miserables” $27 million opening.
Also new to theaters this weekend is yet another Tyler Perry production, “Peeples.” There’s really no reason to think this one won’t keep right in line with the large majority of recent Tyler Perry releases and if that’s the case, it’s looking at a solid $17 million start ahead of its impending devastatingly swift decline.
After a particularly tough weekend one to two hit, there’s just not all that far for “Pain and Gain” to fall anymore. Should it bring that 62.9% loss down to 45%, it’ll come in with just over $4 million and that’ll be just enough to keep “42” from stealing the #4 spot. “42’s” percent change has been creeping up steadily ever since it opened and if that holds true in weekend five, it’s looking at a 45% hit for another $3.3 million.
Considering “Oblivion” is on a landslide decline, “The Croods” will almost definitely surpass it on the charts this weekend and “The Big Wedding” even has a decent shot at getting pretty close, too. Should “Oblivion” see its weekend two profits slashed in half, it’ll be left with $2.5 million. Considering “The Croods” has yet to lose more than 38.8% in a single weekend, why would it start now? Even if it drops that amount moving into weekend eight, it’ll still end up with just over $2.5 million, earning the 6th spot over “Oblivion.” As for “The Big Wedding,” folks with no interest in the two and a half hour “Gatsby” epic could head in its direction instead, lessening its weekend two to three loss of 48.9% to 40%, leaving it with another $2.3 million.
Fortunately for “The Big Wedding,” it had enough of a lead on “Mud” last weekend that even with an additional 277 theaters, “Mud” won’t manage to surpass it. However, that’s not to say “Mud” isn’t in for yet another strong weekend. Should its $3,751 per theater average come down to $2,500, it’ll still take $2.1 million, losing an incredibly minimal amount yet again.
That leaves one spot left on the top ten and it’ll certainly go to “Oz the Great and Powerful.” With a sizable lead on “Scary Movie 5,” the 10th position should be an easy win for “Oz,” especially after its profits actually increased from weekend eight to nine. Should “Oz” drop 25% this time around, it’ll earn another $1.5 million, a solid show for a 10th weekend in theaters.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Iron Man 3
2. The Great Gatsby
3. Tyler Perry Presents Peeples
4. Pain and Gain
5. 42
6. The Croods
7. Oblivion
8. The Big Wedding
9. Mud
10. Oz the Great and Powerful
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)