Box Office Predictions: Fast Cars Are More Appealing Than Hangovers

We’ve got a particularly big weekend coming our way thanks to the holiday and three brand new wide releases entering the race at the box office. The one most likely to come out on top is “Fast & Furious 6.” Not only did 2009’s “Fast and Furious” open north of $70 million, but “Fast Five” kicked off its run with $86 million. Tack on the fact that the sixth installment is moving into its opening weekend with loads of rave reviews and it just has to mark the franchise’s biggest opening yet with $87 million for three days and $110 million for four.

Now here’s where things get a bit fuzzy. “Epic” and “The Hangover III’s” placement doesn’t just depend on their own performance, but on “Star Trek Into Darkness,” too. While one might expect “Into Darkness” to keep in line with the first film and dip just 43% moving into weekend two, the 2009 release didn’t face a fraction of the competition “Into Darkness” is up against. In fact, the new trio of heavy hitters could force it to face a whopping 65% decline, which would leave it with just $25 million for three days and $30 million for four, and possibly lose both the second and third positions to “The Hangover Part III” and “Epic.”

Even though “The Hangover Part II” opened with a stellar $85 million back in 2011, “Epic,” “Fast & Furious,” and abysmal reviews might keep it from earning even half of that. Should the franchise dip back down to film #1 level, “Part III” might only take about $40 million and then $55 million for the full holiday weekend. And while “Epic” may not have a franchise boost like the other two newcomers, it does have the benefit of tapping into the recently neglected kid crowd. With “The Croods” moving into weekend ten, families will be chomping at the bit for some new material and that demand gives “Epic” a good chance of surpassing “The Hangover” with a $45 million in three days and $60 million in four.

“Iron Man 3” will undoubtedly take the #5 spot, but with the loss of 813 theaters could come a hefty drop. Should its profits get slashed in half again, it’ll have an $18 million fourth weekend out and $24 million for the holiday. “The Great Gatsby” is only losing 460 theaters, but between that and waning interest, it could still be left with a 50% hit and should that be the case, it’ll only post $12 million in three days and $18 million in four.

And now here comes the drop-off. “Pain and Gain,” “The Croods,” “42,” “Mud,” and “Oblivion” are all losing a significant amount of theaters, but “Oblivion” is the one taking the biggest loss, likely making it the one to get chopped from the top ten. “Pain and Gain” will take the 7th spot with another $2 million for the four-day weekend while “Epic’s” overflow could push some folks towards “The Croods” and let it claim another $1.8 million. “42” should come in right behind with about $1.7 million and then it’ll be “Mud” with $1.5 million in total for the long weekend.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Mud

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)