Another weekend, another pair of wannabe summer blockbusters. We’ve got “White House Down” and “The Heat” due in 3,000+ theaters and while both are poised to take a solid chunk of cash, neither will earn enough to reach the upper tier of summer 2013 releases.
“The Heat” is clearly trying to follow in “Ted’s” footsteps by taking the last weekend of June, but it’ll likely only manage to post “Bad Teacher” numbers, taking around $35 million for its first weekend out. As for “White House Down,” Roland Emmerich disaster movies have a tendency to earn $50 million or more in their opening weekend, but “White House Down” might feel the pressure from “Monsters University,” “World War Z,” and “Man of Steel,” giving Emmerich an opening on the lower end of the spectrum, around $45 million.
With no new family-friendly fare hitting theaters, “Monsters University” will undoubtedly hold strong. Should it follow a similar path to “Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax,” it’ll only dip 45% from weekend one to two, and take another $45 million to the bank, probably coming in just behind “White House Down.” “World War Z,” on the other hand, will feel the effect of “White House Down,” possibly slamming it with a 60% decline, which would leave it with just about $27 million.
“Man of Steel” opened big, but took a particularly hefty weekend two hit, and that fast decline might not let up all that much in weekend three. Should that 64.6% drop be reduced to about 57%, “Man of Steel” will post $18 million for its third weekend out. Even with “The Heat” invading its R-rated comedy territory, “This is the End” has the 6th position on lock thanks to a strong lead on “Now You See Me.” Should it’s weekend one to two percent change of 35.9% come up to about 42%, it’ll take another $8 million to the bank. As for “Now You See Me,” should the trend continue, it’ll keep its percent change nice and low, possibly only losing 35% for another $5 million.
The final three spots could be a toss up considering they’re within arm’s reach of about six films. Both “Iron Man 3” and “The Internship” will be left with very few screens come the weekend, so we can cross those off. “Fast & Furious 6” had enough of a lead on the pack last weekend, so odds are, it’ll claim the 8th spot with about $3 million. That leaves us with “Star Trek Into Darkness,” “The Purge,” and “The Bling Ring.” With no new horror material entering the race, “The Purge” should be able to hold on strong enough to claim #9 with another $2 million. So now the question is, will “The Bling Ring” have the legs to trump “Star Trek Into Darkness” and sneak into the top ten. I’m betting on it.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. White House Down
2. Monsters University
3. The Heat
4. World War Z
5. Man of Steel
6. This Is The End
7. Now You See Me
8. Fast and Furious 6
9. The Purge
10. The Bling Ring
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
