Box Office Predictions: The Lego Movie Will Be Awesome x3

This weekend should belong to newcomers “3 Days to Kill” and “Pompeii,” but considering neither got much of a promotional push, “The Lego Movie” will come out on top yet again. “3 Days to Kill” could wind up being “From Paris with Love” all over again for Luc Besson. Should that be the case, it’ll kick off its run with just about $9 million. As for “Pompeii,” that one might follow in the footsteps of one of Paul W.S. Anderson’s latest releases, “The Three Musketeers.” “Pompeii’s” got a little less competition than “Three Musketeers” did back in October of 2011 when it faced off against “Paranormal Activity 3,” so it won’t go as low as $9 million to start, but it still might only take in about $12 million in total for weekend one.

Clearly those numbers leave “The Lego Movie” in pretty good shape no matter how much it falls, but the thing is, it won’t fall far regardless. The movie likely won’t repeat last weekend’s 27.8% dip, but if that number only creeps up to 35%, “Lego” will have yet another big weekend and put another $30 million in the bank. Now the question is, will “About Last Night” or “Robocop” manage to maintain enough to keep ahead of “Pompeii” and “3 Days to Kill,” too? “About Last Night” actually has a shot. It didn’t make as much as “Ride Along” during weekend one, but that also means it’s got less to lose. If it manages to bring down “Ride Along’s” weekend one to two drop of 48.7% to 40%, it’ll still manage to claim #2 with about $16 million in total. “Robocop,” on the other hand, will likely experience a much swifter decline in general and could also feel the effects of “Pompeii” this weekend. If it winds up dropping 47%, it’ll post about $11 million and that’ll only be good enough for #4.

“The Monuments Men” should stay pretty stable and maintain enough to secure the sixth position without any trouble. Should it dip 40%, it’ll pull in another $9 million, coming in just behind “3 Days to Kill.” “Endless Love,” however, could be in trouble. It managed to take in a solid $13.3 million to start, but now that Valentine’s Day has come and gone, it could take a significant weekend two hit. If it sees its weekend one profits slashed in half, it’ll be left with just about $7 million and the seventh position on the top ten.

“Ride Along” should have taken a pretty big hit courtesy of “About Last Night,” but considering it only dropped 9.4% last weekend, there’s no reason to think it’ll lose much this time around either. Even if that percent change creeps up to 25%, it’ll still claim $6.5 million for its sixth weekend out. “Winter’s Tale,” however, doesn’t even have a shot. It was last weekend’s weakest opener and it’ll undoubtedly be the first to slip off the top ten. Considering “Frozen” is bound to continue to stretch its legs, possibly dropping just 25% moving through weekend 14, it’ll easily trump “Winter’s Tale’s” potential $3.5 million weekend two haul with $4.5 million of its own.

ShockYa Predictions

10. Winter’s Tale

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)