Why, after months of dodging debate requests from his GOP opponent, would Joe Biden suddenly challenge Donald Trump to a face-off? The answer is simple: to change the subject and create a distraction.
Recent polls have shaken the political landscape, revealing a significant lead for Trump in five out of six crucial battleground states. These polls, conducted by The New York Times, Sienna College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer, show Trump ahead of Biden by considerable margins. This data has fueled anxiety among Democrats, who see these numbers as a reflection of Biden’s poor presidency.
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Biden by 47-44% among registered voters. The margins are even more pronounced in other states: 49-42% in Michigan, 49-42% in Arizona, 49-39% in Georgia, and 50-38% in Nevada. Wisconsin is the only state where Biden leads, and even there, it’s within the margin of error at 47-45%.
The story is similar among likely voters. Trump leads in five of the six battleground states: 48-45% in Pennsylvania, 49-43% in Arizona, 50-41% in Georgia, 51-38% in Nevada, and 47-46% in Wisconsin. In Michigan, Biden barely leads by 47-46%.
Adding independent or third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Libertarian Lars Mapstead into the mix, Trump still maintains a lead. In these scenarios, Trump leads Biden by 40-36% in Pennsylvania, 42-33% in Arizona, 39-31% in Georgia, 41-27% in Nevada, and 38-36% in Michigan. In Wisconsin, it’s a tie at 38-38%.
These numbers are troubling for Biden. As the Times notes, these findings are consistent with previous polls from November, despite a 25% stock market gain, Trump’s ongoing criminal trial in Manhattan, and millions spent on Biden’s campaign ads in battleground states.
Biden’s inability to shift the polling landscape indicates deeper issues. The Senate contests in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show Democrat candidates leading their GOP counterparts and outperforming Biden. This suggests the problem isn’t with the Democrat Party but with Biden himself.
Biden’s job approval rating is another red flag. Historically, a president’s job approval rating is a strong predictor of reelection chances. Gallup’s data shows that since World War II, only two presidents with job approval ratings below 40% in June of their reelection year lost: Jimmy Carter (32% in June 1980) and George H.W. Bush (37% in June 1992). While we aren’t in June yet, Biden’s current approval ratings are alarmingly low.
Biden’s challenge to debate Trump appears to be a strategic move to divert attention from these dismal poll numbers and his administration’s failings. As the 2024 election approaches, the stakes are higher than ever, and Biden’s campaign faces an uphill battle.