We’ve got two holidays on the horizon, but an abundance of competition and lack of interest could keep all four newcomers from making enough to trump last weekend’s big winner, “The Lego Movie.” Considering there’s no new animated competition and all of the very positive word of mouth, there’s a good chance “Lego” might maintain 50% of its opening profits, making $35 million for three days and $45 million for four days the numbers to beat.
The ones that could come closest to doing just that are “About Last Night” and “Robocop.” Kevin Hart’s been killing it lately and with “Ride Along” making its way out, there’s more than enough room for “About Last Night” to move right it. It won’t come anywhere near “Ride Along’s” $41.5 million start, but “About Last Night” could certainly lock in about $19 million for three days and $25 million for four. “Robocop” is poised to come in just a bit higher. It isn’t particularly Valentine’s Day appropriate, but it’s also the only new option for those who’d rather not do a romance. Should it match last year’s Valentine’s Day actioner, “A Good Day to Die Hard,” “Robocop” could be heading towards a $24 million regular weekend start and $32 million for the full holiday run.
Unfortunately for “Endless Love” and “Winter’s Tale,” here’s where we’ll get the divide that could let “The Monuments Men” slip in. Should “Monuments Men” dip a little more than “Valkyrie” and lose 40% of its opening profits, it’ll post about $13 million for its second weekend out and $17 million for the holiday, and that should be good enough to steal #4 from “Winter’s Tale.” “Endless Love” doesn’t even have a shot.
“Winter’s Tale” is loaded with big name stars, but rock bottom reviews and an unappealing promotional push will undoubtedly entice some to steer clear. There’s a good chance this could be “Broken City” all over again for Russell Crowe, making just $9 million over the course of three days and $11 million for four, after which it’ll likely endure a fast fall. As for “Endless Love,” it’ll be lucky to keep ahead of “Ride Along.” Should “Ride Along” end up with some “About Last Night” overflow, it might manage to hold on to 55% of its weekend four profits, which would give it $5 million for its fifth weekend out and $7 million for the full holiday. And then there’s “Endless Love,” which could be on its way to a #8 debut with a similar opening to “Vampire Academy,” a mere $4 million and then $5.5 million including the bonus day, which won’t be good enough to overtake “Frozen.” “Frozen” won’t be able to maintain last weekend’s 23.1% dip, but a 30% drop will still leave it with $4.5 million for three days and then $6.5 million for four.
As for last weekend’s big bust, “Vampire Academy,” at this point, the only thing that one’s got going for it is the fact that “Lone Survivor” and “That Awkward Moment” are both losing theaters. Chances are, “Lone Survivor” will take #9 with a 40% loss, $3.3 million weekend eight haul and $4.5 million for the holiday, but if “Vampire Academy” manages to hold on to 70% of its measly opening profits and “That Awkward Moment” plummets 50%, it could just barely steal #10 with about $2.7 million for three days and $3.5 million for four.
Box Office Predictions
1. The Lego Movie
3. About Last Night
4. The Monuments Men
5. Winter’s Tale
6. Ride Along
8. Endless Love
9. Lone Survivor
10. Vampire Academy