Well, this should certainly be a livelier week. Unlike last weekend where we had just one wide release, and a weak one at that, the second weekend in January welcomes two new big releases to the competition, The Dilemma and The Green Hornet. Between the two, there’s really no contest; The Dilemma doesn’t stand a chance against The Green Hornet. Not only is The Dilemma only hitting 2,941 theaters as compared to The Green Hornet’s 3,584, but the latter will also benefit from the high 3D ticket prices and better reviews, too.
Back in 2009, My Bloody Valentine 3D kicked off its run in January with a nice $21.2 million. In terms of superhero movies, it’s difficult to find a viable comparison since most of the kind normally arrive in the summer, but it could be likened to a February 2007 release, Ghost Rider. That one debuted in a similar amount of theaters but minus the extra dimension, and earned a total of $45.4 million in week one. So, between the 3D and superhero draw, The Green Hornet looks as if it’ll open big, but not as big as Ghost Rider and that might have something to do with The Dilemma.
No, it won’t beat The Green Hornet, but The Dilemma certainly has a number of draws like director Ron Howard and stars Vince Vaughn, Kevin James, Jennifer Connelly, Winona Ryder, Channing Tatum and Queen Latifah. As powerful as each and every one of those names are, we’re going to focus on James. In 2009, James hit it big in January with Paul Blart: Mall Cop. Not only did that one take in $31.8 million opening weekend, but that’s the lowest opening of all of James’ live action films. I don’t know what it is, but this guy means money. By the end of this battle Green Hornet could come in with $40 million while The Dilemma takes $30 million.
The limited releases of the week won’t affect the top ten, but a major expansion certainly will. Black Swan is getting an additional 744 theaters. There’s actually a chance that that boost could earn Black Swan the fourth position. Last weekend it came it at #5, but since, it’s held the #2 position every single day. Even with the extra 744, it’ll still be behind True Grit by 796, so it won’t be able to overcome that one, but the fast-falling Little Fockers is a different story. That one took a pretty big hit last week, its third week in theaters, dropping nearly 50%. Meet the Fockers had a similar drop, but not until week five. Meet the Fockers followed its 50% fall with a 17% loss the next weekend, but this Focker film looks to suffer more damage, perhaps even losing 40% and earning just $8 million
As for True Grit, that one took a pretty big hit as well in week three, but thanks to the award season, shouldn’t crash as hard as Fockers in week four. However, with Black Swan posing a pretty big threat, it could still see a nice drop. Last weekend, it fell 40%, so this could mean a 25% drop this weekend, leaving it with about $10 million. Now back to Black Swan. That one saw a measly 8.7% fall last weekend and could find itself in the single digit drop zone again. Should it lose the same amount, Black Swan will come in with another $8 million.
Should Season of the Witch continue to perform poorly like Nicolas Cage’s last film, The Sorcerer’s Apprentice, it could plummet 50% in week two, leaving it with maybe only $6 million. TRON: Legacy will see a big drop as well as it makes its way out of the top ten, falling 50% and taking in $5 million. Country Strong will join the big drop club as well. That one only managed to accumulate $7.3 million with its 1,422-theater boost last weekend, so a 35% drop could be in the cards.
Also on its way down is The Fighter, which has generally dropped 30% from week-to-week since its December expansion, minus the New Year’s boost. Should it do the same this weekend, that one could come in with about $4 million, putting it right behind Country Strong.
The toss up this weekend will be The King’s Speech. It’ll certainly have a place in the top ten, but where is a little hazy. Last week it added another 58 theaters and fell just 17.5%, so this weekend, with no screen additions, it’ll likely drop more; let’s say 25%. That would give it about $4 or $5 million, putting it in the mix with TRON, Country Strong and The Fighter, all of which I’m hoping it beats.
Shockya.com Predictions:
1. The Green Hornet
2. The Dilemma
3. True Grit
4. Black Swan
5. Little Fockers
6. Season of the Witch
7. The King’s Speech
8. TRON: Legacy
9. Country Strong
10. The Fighter
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
