We’ve got just one heavy contender invading the battle at the box office this weekend, No Strings Attached. Considering last weekend’s new romantic comedy had a rough start, The Dilemma shouldn’t pose much of a threat in terms of stealing any moviegoers itching to get their fix of funny love. Yes, The Dilemma had the usually bankable Kevin James and a far larger assortment of very familiar faces, but No Strings Attached has something The Dilemma doesn’t, a potential Oscar contender. After snagging the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama, Natalie Portman fever is in the air. Plus, No Strings Attached doesn’t have to directly compete with The Green Hornet; it’s the sole new wide release. Going by Ashton Kutcher’s typical earnings, No Strings Attached is most along the lines of What Happens in Vegas. That one hit theaters at the start of the summer season, but we’ll consider Portman the balancing factor here and say like What Happens in Vegas, No Strings Attached will open with something like $20 million.
So now what’s going to happen to last weekend’s top earner? Let’s stick with the Ghost Rider comparison. That one took a massive 55.8% hit in week two back in 2007 and it looks as though that might be the case with The Green Hornet, too. Like The Green Hornet, Ghost Rider didn’t go up against much in terms of new releases in its second week, so that drop was simply due to loss of interest. However, it’s still hard to imagine The Green Hornet taking that hard a fall considering the reviews aren’t nearly as bad as the ones for Ghost Rider and, based on personal experience, moviegoers are generating some good buzz. It looks like The Green Hornet will drop about 45%, leaving it with $22 million for week two.
With a notably poor start, it should come as no surprise that The Dilemma might take a big hit in week two. Should that one pull a Bounty Hunter and drop 42% in its second week, that’ll leave it with about $11 million.
As for the rest of the bunch, the Oscar contenders will lead the pack. In week four, True Grit fell a measly 10.1% and while that drop will be bigger in week five, it shouldn’t be more than 20%, leaving it with another $10 million. The King’s Speech benefited from a 785-theater boost last weekend. This time, it’ll certainly be in the red, but perhaps merely losing just 15%. Another film waving goodbye to the benefits of a theater count boost is Black Swan, but it’ll feel the effects far more than The King’s Speech. Even with the additional screens, The King’s Speech was still showing in over 700 less theaters than Black Swan, but managed to earn over $1 million more. This time around, Black Swan will likely suffer the same fate and fall second to The King’s Speech, but perhaps by an even bigger gap this time around. Should Black Swan drop 25%, it’ll be left with about $7 million to The King’s Speech’s $9 million.
After an unusually impressive fifth week, Yogi Bear looks as though it’ll finally overtake Little Fockers. It’s highly unlikely the film will find itself up again in week six, but with the lack of kids’ films in theaters, it could merely drop 30% leaving it with $5 million. As for Little Fockers, it’ll probably follow right behind with $4 million. The last two positions on the top ten should go to TRON: Legacy and The Fight respectively. Even though Tangled did get a 10.3% bump up last weekend, both TRON and The Fighter are on slow enough declines that they should be able to hold on even if Tangled dropped just 15% in its ninth week.
1. The Green Hornet
2. No Strings Attached
3. The Dilemma
4. True Grit
5. The King’s Speech
6. Black Swan
7. Yogi Bear
8. Little Fockers
9. TRON: Legacy
10. The Fighter
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)