We’ve only got two new wide releases this weekend, but they could be heavy hitters. Arriving in 3,100 theaters is the sequel to last year’s Diary of a Wimpy Kid, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules. Now, this one’s an easy call. Not only is it a sequel, but it’s arriving at the exact same time of year as the first. Should it put up similar numbers, Rodrick Rules is looking at a $22.1 million opening.
Now what about Zack Snyder? This guy is a bit all over the place. His last two March releases, Watchmen and 300, both had big openings, however, his latest film, the $80 million Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole only took in $16 million to start. What does this mean for Sucker Punch? It certainly doesn’t have much of a chance at putting up 300 numbers, but it could find itself right smack in the middle of Legend of the Guardians and Watchmen with about $39 million.
As for last weekend’s top earner, considering Limitless opened right on par with Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, it’s likely to follow in that film’s footsteps and lose 47% of its week one earnings, leaving it with about $10 million. Following right behind will either be Rango or Battle: Los Angeles. Considering Rango has just as much of an appeal for adults as it does kids, Wimpy Kid shouldn’t hinder it in the least allowing it to continue its slow decline. There’s a good chance Rango could only lose 35% from week three to four, giving it a total of $9 million for the weekend.
Unfortunately for Battle: LA, the outlook isn’t as good. It plummeted from week one to two, losing a whopping 59%. There is no doubt Sucker Punch will still even more of its thunder perhaps leaving it with another 60% loss. That would put Battle: LA at just $6 million for week three. This could give The Lincoln Lawyer and Paul the opportunity to sneak right past it. Both films earned $13 million their first weekend out and they might stick together this weekend, too. Both could lose only about 33% partly due to positive reviews and word-of-mouth, giving them another $8 million a piece.
Coming in at #8 should certainly be Red Riding Hood. It did take a big fall from week one to two and Sucker Punch will definitely steal some of its audience, but it should have enough of an edge on Mars Needs Moms and The Adjustment Bureau to hold on with a 40% loss and a $4 million intake. Both The Adjustment Bureau and Mars Needs Moms are clearly on their way out, but they’ve got enough of a lead on Beastly to claim the last two spots on the top ten. The Adjustment Bureau has continually lost about half of its profits from week to week and will likely keep up the trend giving it about $3 million for its fourth week. While it is a major failure having cost $150 million to make and only earning $16.2 million thus far, Mars Needs Moms did have a surprisingly minimal week one to two drop, only falling 23%. That’s quite unlikely this time around, but should it hold on in the slightest, it could still earn another $2 million.
1. Sucker Punch
2. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
5. The Lincoln Lawyer
7. Battle: Los Angeles
8. Red Riding Hood
9. The Adjustment Bureau
10. Mars Needs Moms
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)