We’ve got two big ones hitting theaters this weekend and lucky for them, their target audiences don’t overlap in the least. First up is the one likely to make a killing (no pun intended), Scream 4. Back in 1996, Scream opened with a mere $6.4 million, but went on to earn a whopping $173 million worldwide on a low $14 million budget. The next year Ghostface returned with a vengeance and Scream 2 began its run with $32.9 million. In 2000, Scream 3 raised the bar even higher taking in $34.7 million its first weekend out. What’s the fate of Scream 4? We’re going bigger; this film has everything in its favor from nearly no horror competition to being part of a wildly successful franchise. Not only is Scream 4 poised to open stronger than all of its predecessors, but it’ll supersede them by quite a bit, perhaps opening as high as Paranormal Activity 2 with $40 million.
As for this weekend’s other heavy hitter, Rio, it looks as though it might earn just as much as Rango, which would put it just behind Scream 4 with about $38 million. Similarly to Rango, Rio’s got one heck of a voice cast including Jesse Eisenberg, Anne Hathaway, Jamie Foxx, Leslie Mann and more. Further amplifying it’s prospects? Rio debuted overseas one week early and the reception was big, the film already totaling $54.9 million at the foreign box office.
Now it’s back to the familiar faces. Last weekend’s top grosser, Hop, will snag the third position, but will likely lose a heck of a lot of steam thanks to Rio. Whereas Hop dropped just 43.3% from week one to two, the week three loses will be at least 55%, giving it another $9 million. Hanna, on the other hand, shows no signs of slowing down – well, at a fast pace at least. Not only did it surprise everyone by overtaking Arthur last weekend, but it also trumped Hop on Monday and Tuesday, barely missing out on winning Wednesday as well. Hanna could fall as little as 30%, giving it $8 million for its second week.
As for Arthur, not only did it not open as strong as hoped, but it looks as though it’ll make a quick exit, too. Should Arthur drop 50%, it’ll come in with just $6 million, which might make the fifth position an easy win for Soul Surfer, which looks to lose only 40%, giving it somewhere between $6 and $7 million. Similar to last weekend, Insidious should follow right behind even with a steeper decline courtesy of Scream 4. Should the film lose 40% of its profits, it’ll earn about $5 million for its third week.
While Arthur may have had a lackluster start, it’s Your Highness that’s got some serious problems. Not only did it merely make $9.4 million its first weekend out on a near $50 million budget, but it looks to lose a whopping 50% of those profits in week two, which would give it about $4 million. In fact, Source Code might even be able to creep up and steal the eighth position from Your Highness. Source Code’s 41.6% week two drop is a little on the harsh side, but it’ll likely maintain more traction than Your Highness, perhaps only falling another 45% giving it about $4 or $5 million. As for Limitless, while it’s had a stellar run, this will certainly be its last weekend in the top ten. The film has held steady since its opening, dropping just 20% from week one to two and then 38.2% and 41.3%. Should that number inch up to about 45%, it’ll still pull in about $3 million for its fifth week.
1. Scream 4
5. Soul Surfer
8. Source Code
9. Your Highness
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)