2011 Summer Movie Season: Projected $300 million club

With the 2011 summer movie season upon us, an abundance of previews and predictions are starting to hit outlets all over the country. Now with all due respect to the authors who write these preview pieces; the truth is, none of us can accurately predict how entertaining a big-budgeted blockbuster is going to be. And that works both ways; for even the ones that we think may bomb, can actually turn into a nice surprise.

So in the effort to offer an alternate preview – and to kind of contradict myself – here’s a look at the 2011 summer flicks that yours truly believes will venture into the coveted $300 million box office gross on the domestic front. That doesn’t mean they’re going to be well-received critically, but moviegoers will feel the urge to check them out. Leading studios to miraculously earn profits off their insanely expensive products.

Presently, just thirty-six films have earned inclusion into this rarified $300-million-air. In 2010, four films grossed over $300 mil (“Toy Story 3” – $415 mil, “Alice in Wonderland” – $334 mil, “Iron Man 2” – $312 mil, “Twilight Saga: Eclipse” – $300 mil). Three of four were released in the summer movie season block of May – August (AIW was released in March). In 2009, only three films crossed the $300 million plateau; two of them also released in that summer range (“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” & “Harry Potter: HBP”).

Now this year, there are some fairly obvious sequels that should follow in their predecessors’ footsteps and surpass this milestone mark. Also on the docket, are some highly-anticipated comic book properties who have a sizeable devoted fan base that could push them to Spider-Man-esque results. What one will not see this year is a “Finding Nemo” and/or “Independence Day” success. In other words, a new product – not based off a previous work – will not emulate those past successes.

Finally, here’s a look at how many films since 2002 have joined this elite club. (Majority of them were released during the summer season):

2010: 4 (See above paragraph)
2009: 3 (See above paragraph and add in Avatar)
2008: 3 (The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Indiana Jones IV)
2007: 4 (Spider-Man 3, Transformers, Pirates of the Caribbean 3, Shrek the Third)
2006: 1 (Pirates of the Caribbean 2)
2005: 1 (Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith)
2004: 3 (Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, Passion of the Christ)
2003: 3 (Pirates of the Caribbean 1, Finding Nemo, The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King)
2002: 3 (Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones, The Lord of the Rings: Two Towers, Spider-Man)

Now for the predictions…

Sure Thing: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, Thor, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Three out of the projected four films to break through the $300 million barrier domestically, have seen their predecessors accomplish this within the last decade. With “Pirates 4” going 3D, the perennial box office treasure will sail right past the mark. Although the most recent “Transformers” sequel was destroyed by critics and audiences, it still managed to gross over $400 million. The first piece dropped $319 million in 2007. And since this upcoming release is being billed as the final installment – and has the 4th of July weekend release date – this will land somewhere between the first and second’s respective domestic gross.

Same can be said for “Harry Potter,” sans the negative criticism. If anything, “Deathly Hallows Part 1” has primed every Potter-head for the grand finale. Plus it is boasting 3D ticket prices as well. A thing to note about the Potter franchise though, is that only two of the installments (One & Six) have gone over $300 million in the states.

So that leaves “Thor.” When the teaser for the comic-book God appeared at the close of “Iron Man,” every person in the theater was in a frenzy. Which then led to endless speculation on internet message boards everywhere. “Thor” has a strong following and booked a solid cast for this adaptation; so this could see the shelf-life that “Iron Man” experienced when it first debuted. History shows that being the first major blockbuster to open the summer movie season has its perks too.

Close, but no Stogie: The Hangover Part II, Cars 2, The Smurfs (3D), Cowboys & Aliens, Winnie the Pooh

“The Hangover” is arguably one of the most over-achieving films in the last twenty years. Grossing $277 million on the home front is an incredible feat for an R-rated comedy. So there’s a puncher’s chance that this could do what no comedy (outside of animations) has done and reach $300 million. But it’s not happening. Some would suggest that since its DVD and movie channel run, the flick has expanded its fan base. Perhaps that is true to a certain extent. With that said, just because a ton of people saw this in theaters, doesn’t mean everyone dug it. So look for a breakeven scenario for the cash-grab sequel.

Animations have always performed well during the summer season. “Cars 2” will pass $200 million just as the first installment did. But the timing of its release will have audiences being stretched over many other products. The long-awaited “Smurfs” live-action/CGI piece has nostalgia on its side. Not only is it naturally attractive to today’s younger audiences, but the generation who grew up with the little blue terds will have a curiosity to check this out. Don’t get me wrong though, this could easily backfire.

Staying with nostalgia, the “Winnie the Pooh” release hearkens back to the classic-styled animation in a world dominated by pristine digital graphics. Perhaps this approach will entice the older audiences to take this in at the theaters. Yet even if it does – and gets the usual influx of parents bringing their kids – the timeless classic will not have the stamina in a shoulder-to-shoulder schedule.

Usually a big-budgeted Sci-Fi action piece was a guarantee for exorbitant box office profits. Then again, last year’s heralded “Inception” couldn’t reach the $300 million mark (stalled at $292 mil). Having Steven Spielberg and Ron Howard producing the “Cowboys & Aliens” adaptation, along with a A-list cast, gives the flick a shot. But it will not have the juice to overcome a crowded tentpole season.

No Chance in Summer Hell: Green Lantern (3D), Captain America: The First Avenger, Kung Fu Panda 2, X-Men: First Class, and anything with an August release date

“X-Men: First Class” will serve as a prequel to the trilogy that ended on a high note from a revenue standpoint. In fact, each installment grossed more cash than the previous. But the highest in America was “X-Men: The Last Stand,” which hit $234 mil; and was also torn to shreds by critics and hardcore audiences. Knowing that, reaching close to $200 million would be a success for this guy.

“Captain America” and “Green Lantern” are the other two hot comic properties invading the big screen. Frankly, “Captain America” could be the best movie of the bunch, but that still will not lead it anywhere near the $300 million range. “Green Lantern” has a loyal fan base, but the size of it puts this uber-expensive feature on the cusp of under-achieving.

Audiences may be tuckered out by the time “Kung Fu Panda 2” arrives in theaters in late May. Simply because there’s been a slew of animations already in 2011. The animation used to be a special occurrence at the movies. These days, it’s over saturation has slowly devalued the experience, and parents are more apt to wait for the DVD and/or On-Demand release, to avoid the annoyance of the noisy summer theater.

Traditionally, August has been a summer dump month for horror properties and “guy” flicks. Whether they’re good or bad is irrelevant here; but the last time a August release came close to hitting the $300 million mark was “The Sixth Sense” in 1999 ($293 million). Glancing at what’s on tap for this year, $100 million would please studio execs.

(Quick stat: 25 of the 36 members of the $300 million club have happened within the last ten years.)

All in all, 2011 should easily see 3 features cruise past the touted mark featured here; and if “Thor” can bank on not having any competition, until “Pirates 4” drops in three weeks after its debut, the exclusive upper echelon will increase to 40 films by summer’s end.

By Joe Belcastro

Figures courtesy of Boxofficemojo.com