Box Office Predictions: Pirates To Dethrone Thor

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl opened with $46.6 million back in 2003, Dead Man’s Chest with a whopping $135.6 million in 2006 and then At World’s End with $114.7 million the next year. Now, the question is, can the franchise keep it up with the fourth installment, On Stranger Tides? I’m betting on it. Not only does the film have the weekend all to itself, but it’s opening in over 4,000 theaters. How high will On Stranger Tides go? I’ve got a feeling the franchise peaked with Dead Man’s Chest and, as At World’s End‘s performance suggested, will only go down from there, but On Stranger Tides should still wind up flirting with that $100 million mark.

As for the remaining nine spots on the top ten, the old timers should generally stay in the same formation. Thor seems to be staying on track with 2009’s Star Trek, so the God of Thunder will likely see another 47% hit in week three, which would give it $18 million. Positive word-of-mouth should allow Bridesmaids to hold on strong in week two, just like The Hangover. Should that be the case, Bridesmaids will only lose about 30% of its week one profits, putting it right behind, if not in front of Thor, with its own $18 million haul. Fast Five is cruising along far stronger than its predecessor, Fast and Furious. While both films saw 60% losses from week one to two, Fast Five only dropped 37% in week three as compared to Fast and Furious’ 56.8% loss. Should Fast Five hold steady, it could come in with about $11 million.

Priest is the one that could jumble up last weekend’s order. The $60 million-budgeted film only opened with about $14 million. Should Priest stay on track with the January 2011 release, The Rite, it’ll tumble 60%, leaving it with just $6 million for week two. As for Rio, director Carlos Saldanha and his team are likely thrilled with their mere 2.7% week five loss, but with Kung Fu Panda 2 on the horizon, this weekend will be their last shot to pull in a pretty penny. Should Rio hold up incredibly strong yet again, losing just 15%, it’ll add another $7 million to the pot, passing right by Priest.

Just like Death at a Funeral, Jumping the Broom opened with about $15 million only to fall 50% in week two. Should the parallel continue, Jumping the Broom will lose half of its earnings yet again, coming in with about $3.5 million. Something Borrowed is poised to continue to follow right behind with $3 million for week three. Lastly will most certainly be Water for Elephants followed by Madea’s Big Happy Family, both of which will make their final appearance on the top ten. Water for Elephants still has a shot at losing only 40% of its week four earnings and still take about $2.5 million. Big Happy Family, on the other hand, will be lucky to pull in another million.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Madea’s Big Happy Family

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)