Box Office Predictions: First Class May Find Itself On Par With X2

We’ve hit June; is it starting to feel like summer yet? Clearly the box office is getting in the mood because we’ve already had three $80 million+ openings. Will X-Men: First Class make #4? I’m betting on it. Not only is First Class the only new wide release hitting theaters this weekend, but it’s backed by fantastic reviews and a dedicated fan base. Back in 2000, X-Men opened to the tune of $54.5 million while X2: X-Men United boosted that number to a whopping $85.6 million. Then, in 2006, X-Men: The Last Stand blew both out of the water, kicking off its 18-week run with $102.8 million. First Class will undoubtedly cross the $80 million mark; the question is, how high will it go? Considering the fact that the veteran films are still quite strong, perhaps as high as X2 with about $85 million.

The remaining nine positions on the top ten are all about who’s got the longest legs. Yes, The Hangover Part II kicked off its run with a $103.4 million four-day weekend bang, but unlike its predecessor it looks to take a pretty steep week one to two hit. Using its $85.9 million three-day total, The Hangover Part II is poised to lose about 50%, leaving it with $43 million. While Kung Fu Panda 2 may have had a weaker opening than DreamWorks and Paramount hoped, positive word of mouth should make for a slower decline, hopefully just 40%. Using the film’s $47.7 million three-day opening rather than its $60.9 million holiday start, a loss of 40% would leave it with $29 million.

As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides started off with a somewhat similar decline to At World’s End. After a $114.7 million three-day start, At World’s End fell 61.5%, taking in $44.2 million in week two and then went on to lose just 52.2% in week three. On Stranger Tides may have only lost 55.8% from week one to two, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll still fall that much less than At World’s End this time around. In fact, At World’s End’s steeper drop is likely due to the fact that it made more in week one. The higher you climb, the harder you fall, right? Well, once you take that initial drop, things level out, and On Stranger Tides will level out on a lower plain than At World’s End. Then you’ve got to consider the competition. In week three, At World’s End only had to fend off Ocean’s Thirteen, which only went on to take in $36 million to start. X-Men: First Class is a whole different story. Ultimately, On Stranger Tides could wind up losing more this time around, perhaps as much as 65% leaving it with just $14 million.

Apparently The Hangover Part II didn’t have that much of an effect on Bridesmaids because after only losing 20.4% from week one to two, it managed to pull off the same during week two to three. Can the comedy do it again? It’s doubtful, but that percent change likely won’t creep up very much, maybe only by an additional 10%. Should Bridesmaids take a 30% week four tumble, that’ll give it another $11 million. As for Thor, it looks as though First Class is about to give it a hefty shove. The most Thor’s lost in a single weekend is 55.5% and while it shouldn’t drop more than that, it could wind up losing just as much and that would leave it with $4 million for week five.

Should Thor take such a tough tumble, Fast Five might be able to slide right by. While Fast Five fell harder than Thor from week one to two, ever since, it’s held steadier. No, Fast Five won’t be putting up a big number in its sixth week, but it could wind up taking another $5 million to the bank. However, what could top both Thor and Fast Five this weekend isn’t a summer blockbuster, yet a Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris. That one blew everyone away by cracking the top ten with $1.9 million in its second week thanks to a 52-theater expansion. This weekend, it’s getting 89 more and should it maintain its per theater average of $33,268, we could be looking at a $5 million intake for week three.

As for the final two spots, should Rio continue to landslide, it could leave them wide open for Jumping the Broom and Something Borrowed to make one last appearance on the top ten, both of which could still take in another $1 million.

Shockya.com Predictions

10. Something Borrowed

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)