Can Transformers: Dark of the Moon go three for three? Fat chance. In fact, there’s a good chance Dark of the Moon could lose its highest earner of 2011 title fairly soon, too. The release of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 is packing an incredible amount of hype all of which is about to explode throughout a whopping 4,200+ locations. Should Part 2 debut with the same $30,300 per theater average as Part 1, we’re looking at a $130 million weekend which would make The Deathly Hallows Part 2 the strongest opener of the franchise.
Winnie the Pooh is also set for a wide release this week, but in about 2,000 less theaters. With a seemingly weak promotional campaign and an unusually low hour and three-minute runtime, Winnie the Pooh very well might slip through the cracks. Should the film perform along the lines of Ponyo, it could wrap weekend one with about $9 million.
Even with the final Harry Potter film in the race, Transformers won’t have any trouble securing the second position on the top ten. Dark of the Moon actually fell less from week one to two than its predecessor, Revenge of the Fallen. Sure Harry will steal some of Dark of the Moon’s week three thunder, but for those who can’t get into a Deathly Hallows screening, guess what’ll likely be their fallback? Dark of the Moon could level out with Revenge of the Fallen this time around, only losing 42% of its week two earnings. That would give Dark of the Moon another $27 million.
After an admirable start, with no competition in the comedy department, Horrible Bosses should have no trouble holding on strong, perhaps only dropping about 40%, similar to Bad Teacher’s week two fall. Should that be the case, Horrible Bosses will take another $17 million to the bank. As for Zookeeper, should it keep on line with Mr. Popper’s Penguins, it’s looking at a 45% drop, which would leave it with about $11 million for week two.
As expected, Cars 2’s fall leveled out a bit in week three and it looks to hover in the 42% zone again for week four, which would give it another $8 million. Bad Teacher’s been enjoying a rather moderate decline, losing 54.1% from week one to two and then just 38.5% from week two to three. This time around, the drop might be a bit steeper courtesy of big new competition and Horrible Bosses maintaining some steam, so, should it lose 45% of its week three profits, it’ll come in at #7 with $5 million.
Larry Crowne took a tough tumble after a rough start, losing 54.7% of its minimal week one profits for a mere $5.9 million in week two. As Super 8 continues its slow decline, still never losing more that 44% in a single weekend, there’s a good chance Larry Crowne could slide right by with another 54% loss, leaving the eighth position attainable for Super 8 as long as it only loses 40% of its week five profits. Ultimately, that scenario would give Larry Crowne about $2.5 million and put Super 8 just shy of $3 million.
As for the final spot on the top ten, we’ll have a bit of a fight between Mr. Popper’s Penguins and Monte Carlo. Considering Zookeeper wasn’t much competition and Harry Potter will likely suck up the entire teen demographic, Monte Carlo could be poised to lose 55%, which would leave it with just under $2 million. If Mr. Popper loses no more than 40% of its week four earnings, it could pull in just enough to top Monte Carlo.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
2. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
3. Horrible Bosses
4. Zookeeper
5. Winnie the Pooh
6. Cars 2
7. Bad Teacher
8. Super 8
9. Larry Crowne
10. Mr. Popper’s Penguins
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
