Fingers crossed October begins better than September ended. We’ve got just two new wide releases arriving this weekend and while one is poised to make a splash at about 3,300 theaters, the other could run into trouble with only 2,000 locations and a limited viewership.
Director Shawn Levy is used to making the big bucks with his films, but unlike the Night at the Museum movies, Real Steel isn’t getting a summer or Christmas release. Then again, it does have the benefit of going up against just one new film and a handful of box office vets all on their way out. Those assets could help it earn just as much as the first Night at the Museum, about $30 million. The Ides of March could follow in the footsteps of another recent George Clooney release, The American. Should that be the case and The Ides of March post $4,668 per theater, it’ll wrap its first weekend with a total of $10 million.
As for the old timers, they could almost all benefit from the fact that just two new films are entering the race. After an impressively strong second week, Dolphin Tale could hold on yet again, perhaps losing just 35% of its week two profits, giving it another $9 million. Moneyball will likely stay right behind, but that gap is poised to widen. Should Moneyball drop 40% from week two to three, it’ll add another $7 million to the pot. After a mere 27.3% week two to three drop, The Lion King lost 51.6% of its week two profits. Is that a sign The Lion King is making a swift exit? I’d say so. Should its profits be slashed in half again, it’ll come in with $5 million for its fourth week out.
It should be interesting to see what happens to Courageous after its surprisingly strong start. Perhaps it’ll have legs like Soul Surfer and lose a mere 31% from week one to two. Should that be the case, Courageous will earn the fifth position with another $6 million. Thanks to 50/50’s disappointing start, the film doesn’t have much room to fall. Should it only lose 35% of its profits, it’ll take $5.5 million its second week out.
Poor Dream House. Actually, not poor Dream House; it deserves to suffer the typical horror movie fate and lose half its profits in week two. Opinions of the film aside, this one will be lucky to earn another $4 million this weekend. Abduction had a less than stellar start followed by a rather steep drop and things likely won’t get much better. Abduction could be heading towards another 48% loss, which would leave it with just about $2.5 million and the ninth spot. Lucky for What’s Your Number?, Killer Elite is losing over 500 theaters this weekend, making the last position on the top ten an easy grab despite a likely 55% drop. What’s Your Number? will makes its last stand with about $2 million.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Real Steel
2. The Ides of March
3. Dolphin Tale
4. Moneyball
5. Courageous
6. 50/50
7. The Lion King
8. Dream House
9. Abduction
10. What’s Your Number?
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
