Paramount is going big this weekend with a 3,549-theater release for Footloose. I thought I’d be comparing this one to another 80s musical remake, Fame, but considering Footloose seems to be a bit more adult-friendly and is actually getting positive reviews, it could perform more along the lines of Mamma Mia. Then again, that’s only in terms of its opening weekend total, $27 million. There’s no chance Footloose will be able to match Mamma Mia‘s stellar $9,325 per theater average.
Arriving in 2,997 theaters is yet another remake, The Thing. Horror movies have had a rough past few weeks with Dream House, Straw Dogs, Apollo 18 and Shark Night 3D all posting meager earnings. While The Thing doesn’t look to take in the big bucks, it could make just as much as Quarantine. Should The Thing have a per theater average of about $5,700, its weekend one grand total will come to about $17 million. Last up for the new wide releases is The Big Year, which is getting just over 2,000 screens. While this one does boast an impressive cast, a weak promotional campaign could leave it with just as much as The Invention of Lying, roughly $9 million, based on a $4,117 per theater average.
Real Steel opened just as strong as Shawn Levy’s Night at the Museum, but considering the latter had a Christmas opening, the two won’t follow similar paths down. However, there is a good chance Real Steel’s week one to two drop could be the same as Night at the Museum’s week two to three fall. Should Real Steel lose 35% of its week one profits, it’ll wrap week two with about $17 million, giving The Thing some solid competition for that second spot. The Ides of March could be Drive all over again for Ryan Gosling, which would mean it’s going to take a 50% hit in week two, leaving it with just $6 million.
Dolphin Tale has been on a moderate decline and looks to stay on that same path. Even if its percent change increases to about 40%, it’ll still earn another $5.5 million. Moneyball’s been enjoying a slow fall as well, but just the slightest bit steeper than Dolphin Tale, suggesting it could drop about 45% and earn $4 million in week three. 50/50 could perhaps lose no more than 35% of its week two profits. Should that be the case, 50/50 will take another $3.5 million to the bank. Not bad, but Courageous is getting an additional 53 theaters and that could be just what the TriStar release needs to steal the eighth spot on the top ten with just the slightest bit more than $3.5, leaving 50/50 in ninth.
That tenth spot could be a bit of a crap shoot as The Lion King seems to be tanking and both Dream House and What’s Your Number? saw hefty week two hits. It looks as though Dream House has enough of a lead on What’s Your Number? to knock that one out of the running and should The Lion King’s intake get slashed in half again, a 45% drop will still earn Dream House $2.5 million and the final spot on the list.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Footloose
2. The Thing
3. Real Steel
4. The Big Year
5. The Ides of March
6. Dolphin Tale
7. Moneyball
8. Courageous
9. 50/50
10. Dream House
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
