Prepare yourself for more of the same because the only new entries we have this weekend are very limited releases including Answers to Nothing, Shame and Pastoreia. However, while the players remain the same, the ordering most certainly shifts quite a bit, starting with that top spot. After a steep 69.8% week one to two drop, things should level off a bit for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1, but not by much, keeping on track with New Moon and losing about 64% of its week two profits for a $15 million week three total. Not bad, but The Muppets looks as though it’ll hold on strong enough to retain enough of its week one earnings to finally dethrone Breaking Dawn. Should The Muppets lose just 35% of its opening weekend haul, it’ll be taking another $19 million to the bank on Monday.
While Happy Feet Two and Arthur Christmas aren’t expected to suffer landslide drops, Hugo is getting another 563 theaters, bringing its total to 1,840, so, should it maintain a rather strong per theater average, perhaps $6,000 as compared to its $8,899 opening average, it’ll snag that third spot with about $11 million. As for Happy Feet Two and Arthur Christmas, if they take 40% and 45% hits, respectively, Happy Feet Two will post about $8 million while Arthur Christmas will get just $6.5 million.
After an impressively minimal 14.8% week two to three drop, Jack and Jill could hold on rather strong yet again thanks to 20 new locations and the lack of new competition. Should the Adam Sandler-starrer fall just 35%, it’ll take another $6.5 million. Immortals, on the other hand, is waving goodbye to 78 theaters and could see a higher drop, perhaps about 45%, which would give it about $5 million for week four.
Now onto the bottom three? Maybe not. With Puss in Boots losing 255 theaters, The Descendants, J. Edgar and Tower Heist could climb right up and, in The Descendents’ case, maybe beyond Immortals. Thanks to positive word of mouth, the approaching awards season and the minimal competition, The Descendants could drop jut 20% and pull in about $6 million, earning it the seventh position. J. Edgar could also be one to watch considering it’s getting an additional 75 locations, bringing its theater total to 1,985. If its per theater average drops from last weekend’s $2,605 to $2,200, it’ll take $4.5 million more to the bank. Lastly, should Tower Heist tumble 35%, it’ll wrap the list with a $4.5 million total.
1. The Muppets
2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1
4. Happy Feet Two
5. Arthur Christmas
6. Jack and Jill
7. The Descendents
9. J. Edgar
10. Tower Heist
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)