I wouldn’t call this weekend a boom after last weekend’s bust, but with both New Year’s Eve and The Sitter entering the competition, things should pick up at least a slight bit. Due out in over 3,300 theaters, New Year’s Eve is poised to come nowhere close to its mammoth predecessor, Valentine’s Day. Last year, Valentine’s Day kicked off its run with a stellar $56.3 million, but New Year’s Eve is only on track to only earn about half that amount, around $28 million. As for The Sitter, it’s bound to get the shorter end of the stick, perhaps only earning as much as December comedy openers Did You Hear About the Morgans? and Unaccompanied Minors, earning just $7 million.
The other new releases – Young Adult, We Need to Talk About Kevin and Tinker Tailor Solider Spy – are only reaching a limited number of theaters, so now it’s up to the box office vets to secure the remaining positions. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 should have no trouble snagging the second position, falling a little less than 50%, like New Moon did in week four back in 2009. Should that be the case, Breaking Dawn will add another $9 million to its $246 million+ pot. Even after a surprisingly massive week one to two fall, The Muppets should manage to close the gap a bit, perhaps only losing 40% and coming in with about $7 million. With The Descendants’ theater count rising up to about 850 theaters, it’ll certainly be nipping at The Muppets’ heels. Should its per theater average drop from $8,344 to about $5,500, The Descendants will take about $5 million in week four.
After an impressively minimal week one to two drop, positive word of mouth should let Hugo hold on strong yet again. Should it lose just 33% this time around, too, it’ll post about $5.5 million this weekend. Arthur Christmas should find itself in a similar position, but perhaps upping its percent loss from 38.7% to 40%, giving it $4.5 million for week three. Arthur Christmas’ long legs will help increase the gap between its total and Happy Feet Two’s haul. Should Happy Feet Two take another rough hit, perhaps as much as 50%, it’ll wrap weekend four with just $3 million. Jack and Jill should meet a similar fate, which would give it a grand total of $2.5 million for its fifth weekend out. Lastly, Immortals has enough of a lead on Tower Heist to let it snag that last spot with ease, probably posting another $2 million, giving it the edge on Tower Heist this weekend by about $500,000.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. New Year’s Eve
2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1
3. The Sitter
4. The Muppets
5. Hugo
6. The Descendants
7. Arthur Christmas
8. Happy Feet Two
9. Jack and Jill
10. Immortals
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
