“Cloudy with A Chance of Meatballs” got off to a solid start back in September of 2009 with a $30.3 million opening weekend, but the sequel is about to blow that number away. As the first new animated wide release since “Planes,” “Cloudy 2” has the entire family-friendly market to itself, which is similar to last year’s “Hotel Transylvania.” Should it manage to match that film’s opening haul, “Cloudy 2” will win the weekend with $40 million.
With the more narrow appeal of “Don Jon” and “Baggage Claim,” “Prisoners” should have no trouble keeping on top of both. If “Prisoners” keeps in line with “The Town,” it’ll dip 35% and take about $13 million for its second weekend out. As for “Don Jon” and “Baggage Claim,” even though “Don Jon” is getting the wider release, “Baggage Claim” will likely be the bigger winner because it’ll tap into the Tyler Perry viewership completely unchallenged. It won’t post Madea-sized numbers, but it could come in just behind “Good Deeds” with about $12 million. “Don Jon,” on the other hand, is looking at an opening closer to that of “50/50” with about $9 million to start, but there’s nothing wrong with that considering the film only cost $6 million to make.
“Rush” began its run in five theaters with a highly impressive $37,458 per theater average. While that number will undoubtedly come down with the addition of 2,292 locations, it might stop at the $6,500 mark, which would give the film another $14 million, letting it take the #2 spot. “Insidious Chapter 2” is only losing 35 theaters, but considering it’s experiencing the typical horror landslide, it’s hard to imagine it holding on to more than 50% of its weekend two profits. If it sees that intake slashed in half, it’ll come in at #6 with about $7 million.
Yet again, we come to the wild card, “Instructions Not Included.” The film opened incredibly strong, jumped 3.9% in weekend two only to fall 40.3% in weekend three, but gain 11% in weekend four. What does that tell us about its potential in weekend five? Just about nothing, but considering the film is losing 35 theaters and is entering its fifth weekend out, the thing is bound to drop at least 30%. However, even if it manages to hold that strong, “The Family” will still likely snag that #7 spot, trumping “Instructions Not Included’s” $4 million with $4.2 million of its own.
After a disappointing start, “Battle of the Year” will make a swift exit. Should it see its opening profits slashed in half, it’ll only take $2 million, making it quite easy for both “We’re the Millers” and “The Butler” to surpass it. Even though “We’re the Millers” is losing 598 theaters, positive word of mouth and the lack of a new commercial comedy will keep it firmly afloat. Should it drop 35%, it’ll take another $3 million to the bank. “The Butler” is also losing a significant amount of screens, but looks to ride its critical praise and award season buzz to a 40% dip and a $2.5 million seventh weekend haul.
ShockYa Predictions
1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
2. Rush
3. Prisoners
4. Baggage Claim
5. Don Jon
6. Insidious Chapter 2
7. The Family
8. Instructions Not Included
9. We’re the Millers
10. The Butler
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
