Who’s ready for a big weekend at the box office? After locking in over $109 million overseas its first weekend out, “Thor: The Dark World” is poised to blow away the domestic box office, too. With the weekend all to itself, “Thor” could wind up being this year’s “Skyfall” and kick off its run with nearly $90 million, which would put it about $25 million ahead of Thor’s first movie.
Even though there are no other newcomers entering the race on Friday, “12 Years a Slave” is getting its nationwide expansion and will likely shake up the top ten quite a bit. Should its $11,688 per theater average come down to about $6,000, “12 Years a Slave” will post $15 million, possibly bumping “Ender’s Game” down to #3. “Ender” is bound to take a big hit thanks to “Thor: The Dark World,” but it also could get a little boost from the “Thor” overflow. But even if it only dips 45% making the move from weekend one to two, “Ender” will take in just less than $15 million for its second weekend out and fall to #3.
After “Bad Grandpa” held so strong moving from weekend one to two, there’s no reason to think its percent change will creep up much in weekend three. If “Thor” does suck a little life out of it, a 40% dip will still leave “Bad Grandpa” with $12 million to take to the bank. Both “Last Vegas” and “Free Birds” could follow up their disappointing starts with equally disappointing weekend two declines. “Last Vegas” will likely have the longer legs of the two so if it drops about 45% and “Free Birds” takes a 50% hit, the former will come in at #5 with $9 million and the latter will take #6 with $8 million.
Even though both “Gravity” and “Captain Phillips” have been holding exceptionally strong, “Thor” could rock the boat. (No pun intended.) Should “Gravity’s” 36.4% change inch up to 40%, it’ll pull in another $7.7 million whereas “Captain Phillips” will likely face a 35% dip, giving it $5.5 million for its fifth weekend out.
Here’s where “About Time” could slip in. Like “12 Years a Slave,” it’s also getting a nationwide expansion this weekend, but unlike “12 Years a Slave,” its limited release per theater average wasn’t all that impressive. If its $6,150 weekend one average comes down to about $2,000, “About Time” could score about $5 million and come in right behind “Captain Phillips.”
With both “Carrie” and “The Counselor” in the midst of swift declines, “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2” should have no trouble taking the tenth position for one last weekend in the top ten. Should it take a 40% hit, it’ll post $2.5 million for its seventh weekend in theaters.
ShockYa Predictions
1. Thor: The Dark World
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Ender’s Game
4. Bad Grandpa
5. Last Vegas
6. Free Birds
7. Gravity
8. Captain Phillips
9. About Time
10. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
