After closing out January on a rather weak note, “Warm Bodies” could manage to turn things around, even during Super Bowl weekend. Between the persistent promotional campaign and solid reviews, the book-to-film adaptation could wind up matching “The Woman in Black.” The two certainly aren’t tonal matches, but “Warm Bodies” will tap into the young adult fan base just like anything starring Daniel Radcliffe. This time last year, “The Woman in Black” opened surprisingly big, taking the #2 spot with $20.9 million and considering “Warm Bodies” doesn’t have a “Chronicle” to go up against, it could easily secure #1 with the same intake. Based on “The Last Stand” and “Parker’s” performances, “Bullet to the Head” could be in for a rough opening weekend. With a poor marketing effort, “Bullet to the Head” might only manage to take a total of $5 million to kick off its run.
“Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters” will likely take on the horror genre’s typical 50% weekend one to two drop, but it’s got more than enough of an edge on “Mama” to snag that #2 spot with about $10 million. As for “Mama,” should “Zero Dark Thirty” and “Silver Linings Playbook” hold on as well as expected, it’ll barely keep on top with a $7.5 million weekend three total. With Jennifer Lawrence gaining quite a bit of awards season momentum, “Silver Linings Playbook” will again only endure a minimal decline, perhaps just 25%, which would give it another $7 million. Should “Zero Dark Thirty” take a heftier hit again, its $6 million weekend seven haul will only be good enough for #5.
After a subpar start, “Parker” could be heading towards a hefty 50% hit courtesy of abysmal reviews and “Bullet to the Head.” However, thanks to its lead on “Django Unchained” last weekend, $3.5 million could wind up being enough to earn the 7th spot on the top ten, though should “Django” only lose 35% again, it’ll be right behind with $3.2 million. It’s a sad story, but “Movie 43” might be able to snag that 9th spot courtesy of poor word-of-mouth. If this thing really is on its way to becoming one of the worst of the year, people will want to see it and that might let it hold onto 60% of its opening profits for a $3 million weekend two haul.
As for #10, with “Gangster Squad,” “Les Misérables,” and “Broken City” all neck and neck, it’s just a matter of who falls faster. With “Gangster Squad” losing 965 locations, “Broken City” dropping 836 and “Les Mis” losing just 354, it’s clear who’ll have the longer legs. “Les Mis” should have no trouble pulling in another $2.5 million to round out the top ten.
Shockya.com Predictions
1. Warm Bodies
2. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters
3. Mama
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Zero Dark Thirty
6. Bullet to the Head
7. Parker
8. Django Unchained
9. Movie 43
10. Les Misérables
By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)
