Box Office Predictions: Moviegoers To Flock To Elysium

We’ve got a particularly big weekend at the box office coming up with “Elysium,” “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters,” “Planes,” and “We’re the Millers” all debuting in over 2,700 theaters.

Thanks to a good deal of hype and Matt Damon, “Elysium” will likely come out on top. Should it find the middle ground between last summer’s “The Bourne Legacy” and “Total Recall,” it’ll post about $30 million to start. Even though “We’re the Millers” is getting a jump on the competition by opening on Wednesday, it could still claim the #2 spot over the weekend by matching “Dinner for Schmucks” and taking in about $25 million.

“Planes” may bear the Disney brand and is getting the widest release, but with “The Smurfs 2,” “Despicable Me 2,” and “Turbo” still chugging along, it might not even match “Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days,” and begin its run with just $12 million. And lastly we’ve got “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters.” The first film didn’t exactly blow away the box office, but a $31.2 million opening and then a $226.5 million worldwide intake was enough to earn Percy his sequel. Trouble is, unlike that first film, “Sea of Monsters” is buried in competition and won’t benefit from a holiday release, possibly leaving it with only $20 million to start.

Moving over to the veterans, we begin with “2 Guns.” Even though it opened with a solid $27 million, interest in this one could fade fast. Should it see its weekend one profits slashed in half, it’ll only wind up taking $14 million to the bank, which will force it to drop down to the #4 spot. “The Wolverine” likely won’t see another 59.9% change, but that number might only come down to 50%, which would give it an $11 million third weekend out.

“The Smurfs 2” likely won’t get too rattled by “Planes” and also just doesn’t have all that far to fall, so it’s possible it might only experience a 40% loss. Should that be the case, it’ll post $10 million for its second weekend out. “The Conjuring” has enjoyed a relatively slow decline since its strong opening, but that could change a bit this time considering its losing 465 theaters. Should that 41.3% weekend two to three loss creep back up to the film’s weekend one to two drop, it’ll dip 46.9% again and take $7 million for weekend four.

“Despicable Me 2” could also be in for a heftier hit with all the animated competition in play. Should it drop 43.3% again like when “Turbo” first came out, it’ll get to take another $5.5 million. Last up we’ve got “Grown Ups 2,” which has seen its percent change lessen from weekend to weekend significantly. It’s hard to imagine the film losing any less than 31.5% moving from weekend four to five, so perhaps this is the time when it levels out, letting it take another $5 million to the bank.

ShockYa.com Predictions

10. Grown Ups 2

By Perri Nemiroff (via Box Office Mojo)